Stockchase Opinions

The Monthly Gems by Allan TongJohnson & JohnsonJNJTOP PICKMay 11, 2020

JNJ aims to produce 600-900 million doses of its pending cure by the end of Q1-2021. The pharma giant has invested over US$1 billion in partnership with Washington to co-fund vaccine research. Phase I trials are intended for September. If all goes right, JNJ plans to produce at least one billion doses annually. I stress the word “pending,” because JNJ's vaccine is still in development and is not a done deal. However, credit JNJ for beginning research back in January this year. The company has identified a leading vaccine candidate and two backups. I sincerely hope they deliver on their promises. Definitely keep an eye on JNJ's progress. Analysts including Brian Acker and Paul Harris have enough faith in JNJ to recommend it as a top pick during this pandemic. JNJ pays a 2.56% dividend and trades at 16.7x earnings. It's a stable stock and has recovered from the late-March market plunge to return to previous high around $150. It's stable and its range of health and personal care products will remain in consistent demand during post-lockdown. Of course, if JNJ develops a vaccine, shares will skyrocket.
$149.11

Stock price when the opinion was issued

$250.61

As of Jul 21, 2026. Market Open.

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COMMENT

The stock has been slumping, caused by their cardio business missing numbers despite a a beat-and-raise quarter.

BUY

He's been recommending since they got past the overhand from all those talcum lawsuits, which they are now addressing individually so there are no major rulings that can impact the stock that much. They report July 15. Typically, the stock moves erratically on the reporting day, then climbs higher. He expects lots of good news about its oncology drugs and it orthopedic business.

BUY

Great new drug profits and excellent balance sheet. Up 2% during a sharp sell-off in the market

WEAK BUY
JNJ vs. PG

Owns neither. Of the two, he'd prefer JNJ. Hesitant to put them in the same basket. With spinoff of healthcare, it's now much more into pharmaceuticals (doing very well) and medical devices. Valuation is not that demanding. Executing well.

PG is a consumer products company. Consumer is in some difficulty, and jury's out as to whether we've seen the worst of that dip.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

They report Tuesday. It has the most blockbusters and best drugs in its pipeline. However, they often get hammered after their news release comes out in the morning. If so, buy some shares.

BUY

It reports Wednesday. It's become a pharma pure-play after spinning off its orthopedics division. Smart. It has some of the best drugs in their pipeline. They do have an overhang with the talcum-cancer lawsuit, but is no longer a threat to the stock itself.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Is spinning off it orthpedic business, which has slower growth than the drug business. A fine company. Buy now on weakness.

HOLD

Great year, so valuation has expanded. Shedding lower-growth businesses, focusing on medical devices and pharma. Those 2 areas are higher-margin businesses, so success would mean multiple could continue to expand. Legal overhang diminished.

If you already own it, you can hold it for dividend growth and potential upside. If you don't own, buy via an ETF.

BUY

Up 24% this year due to their strong research work and drug pipeline. It's better than the pack.

BUY

Up 23% this year. Their core pharma business is roaring, medical devices business is strong and their oncology franchise is fine. The talcum litigation remains an issue, though.

HOLD
Underwhelming performance, but popped on earnings.

Tough one. Spun out KVUE, which is in a nice space, but the stock's done nothing. JNJ is now more drugs and medical devices, and its stock's done nothing either. Drug companies are difficult to own, really have to do your homework. 

He doesn't want to recommend selling. Drug pipeline sounds good. Good earnings release, and has a bit of earnings momentum behind it. So might not be the time to sell. Yield is ~3%.

DON'T BUY

It reports Wednesday, but the overhang of the talcum powder lawsuits will overshadow that report.

DON'T BUY

High in 2022, series of lower highs and lower lows since then. Only positive is that on the most recent pullback it pulled back to a higher low. If you own it as one position among many, you probably won't lose a bunch of $$. Doesn't see it being a leading stock in the near term. 

Lean into companies that are economically sensitive with pricing power; if their costs go up tomorrow, they can raise prices the next day.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 09/24, Up 8%)

He sold it in March since the earnings estimates were coning down and the fair market value dropped a bit. There are better places to go for free cash flow. The whole health care space is being attacked by the government.

DON'T BUY

Has a triple-A balance sheet and many drugs in the pipeline. But it pays only a 3.55% dividend, below interest rates, and still suffers the legal overhang of its talcum powder allegedly caused ovarian cancer.