Opinions Benj Gallander
Bank of Ireland (Gov & Co)IRERISKYJan 04, 2011
Benj GallanderStock price when the opinion was issued
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(ADR being delisted?) If you like the macro for the Irish economy, and you think the bank is going to be a growth story for the longer-term, why be dissuaded from buying the company because of that. Talk to your broker and you should be able to buy it in Europe. There will probably be an unofficial ADR. He thinks this is happening because the US has provided some very punitive regulations, and a lot of companies are saying it doesn’t make sense to be subject to US regulations when they don’t do a lot of business there.
Ireland did the right thing. They said they had a problem and were going to fix it, and they did. The housing market seems to be bottoming out, so this bank should be doing better. This, along with the other European banks is on the runway, but don’t have any momentum to take off yet. If you don’t own, it wouldn’t hurt to let it go on a little bit longer.
The issue with the banking sector is that the damaged ones needed to be re-capitalized with fresh capital. This one got real capital put into it and the Irish economy is starting to grow quite well. Doesn’t think this is for his clients, but there is definitely upside here. As interest rates climb to higher levels, this will be driven to higher levels also. There has been a definite drop in relative performance because they sold off assets. A decent bank and a good option to look at.
One of the great restructure stories in Europe. This bank dealt with a lot of the issues right off the bat when they saw the Irish economy collapsing. Cut a lot of costs and re-looked at their capital structure and got cheaper funding. This is a real good opportunity for companies in the banking sector as the economies in Ireland continues to heal. There may be some volatility along the way. Not trading at an expensive multiple.
European banks were similar to American banks. Some took assistance. He looks at those that did not have to accept government money. See his top picks today. They can’t restart their dividend due to rules. He would sit tight on this one as they can eventually restart the dividend. Watch for something to fundamentally change or for it to break technical support. If you are up a lot, why not sell half.
Banks are driven by the macro environment of a country. The macro environment in Ireland is difficult but changing quite a bit. They are getting back on track as an economy. It is still going to take time. There is a good chance this company will survive. You could buy it here or wait for a pullback. Hold for a 3-5 year period and you will do well with it.
A total turnaround story. Has actually done a little bit better recently and it looks like there are some prospects to it. The challenge with any of the European banks is the potential for significant dilution of their capital. Having to raise more capital to satisfy different regulatory requirements is very significant and very real. You could do better elsewhere.
