Stockchase Opinions

Bruce Murray International Paper IP-N DON'T BUY Sep 18, 2018

He is neutral on this. The company has transformed its business over the last 20 years from printing newspapers to making cardboard boxes. This is both, a great growth industry and a very mature industry. The company sells at 15x earnings, which is a relatively high multiple for a mature business. International Paper is the leader in the industry, so the company is safe, but it will probably just continue to plug along. He would look elsewhere for an opportunity.

$53.720

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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TOP PICK

A great, deep value play. You get paid to wait with a sustainable dividend. This is a favourable entry point. Strong management team. Yield of 2.8%.

DON'T BUY

It is struggling a bit on global demand dropping and the US$ becoming so strong. The US$ may be rolling over and that would help, but he would not be going out buying the stock. He prefers Canadian paper companies.

PAST TOP PICK

(Top Pick Jul 2/14, Up 2.98%) They have been suffering from the strong dollar. In the future you will see better comps and better balance sheet strength. You are starting to see slow growth.

STRONG BUY

He like this and the sector. How do we get everything we buy on Amazon? It comes in packages which are made from paper. The companies that get involved will do well. He loves it.

WEAK BUY

We are in a process of reflating the system and materials are behaving quite well. Breadth is expanding and momentum is improving. He owns another. This one does look good and pricing is firm. They should continue to do well. He really likes the timber companies, though.

COMMENT

You have the declining paper sales. People are using iPads, and don’t need paper. On the other hand, they make packaging, and sales are going up because of Amazon (AMZN-Q) and e-commerce. Looking at earnings and free cash flow, it looks like their growth from packaging is beating out the loss of revenues from paper. You also get a nice dividend of 3.3%.

COMMENT

Over the past 10-15 years, they've re-focused from paper-based to cardboard-based shipments. They're likely struggling with paper industry issues--China is a disruptor by sucking up the used paper in the States then re-processing it. The high American dollar doesn't help. It's a well-managed company.

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BUY ON WEAKNESS

Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly With increased e-commerce, packaging has increased as well. This is something IP is well positioned to provide. Analysts at Wells Fargo and Bank of America have just upped their outlook to over $50. It trades at 16 times next year earnings, compared to 20 times for the broader market. The stock has had a good run up lately, so we would look to buy this on a pullback towards $36. Yield 4.61% (Analysts’ price target is $43.85)

DON'T BUY
It's always a cheap stock, and he wants a stock that moves higher.