Stock price when the opinion was issued
Over the past 10-15 years, they've re-focused from paper-based to cardboard-based shipments. They're likely struggling with paper industry issues--China is a disruptor by sucking up the used paper in the States then re-processing it. The high American dollar doesn't help. It's a well-managed company.
He is neutral on this. The company has transformed its business over the last 20 years from printing newspapers to making cardboard boxes. This is both, a great growth industry and a very mature industry. The company sells at 15x earnings, which is a relatively high multiple for a mature business. International Paper is the leader in the industry, so the company is safe, but it will probably just continue to plug along. He would look elsewhere for an opportunity.
You have the declining paper sales. People are using iPads, and don’t need paper. On the other hand, they make packaging, and sales are going up because of Amazon (AMZN-Q) and e-commerce. Looking at earnings and free cash flow, it looks like their growth from packaging is beating out the loss of revenues from paper. You also get a nice dividend of 3.3%.