IBM Common StockIBMBUYJan 31, 2025Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 05, 2026. Market Open.
Growing from multiple angles, yet valuation still reasonable. Stable and embedded business complemented by new growth drivers. Consulting business helps companies implement AI, and that's where the real spending is. Strong in hybrid cloud, managing data across environments. Quantum computing already being used with potential for energy, healthcare, manufacturing.
Drop in February due to sector rotation and profit taking. Trades ~19x PE, attractive. Sees 30% upside from here to ~$317. Yield is 2.85%.
Hold on to it. At 4-5% growth, in the ballpark of the top players. He doesn't know its exposure to robotics. Street's pretty positive on it, about 20% upside. At 20x PE, not an aggressive valuation. Margins expected to stay healthy -- 60% gross margins, net income margins of close to 20%.
(Analysts’ price target is $314.00)Has tripled since late 2022, and up 40% the past 12 months. They have terrific AI, cloud and consulting businesses. Also have quantum computing. Sales are up under a fine CEO. The rallied hard last October, but has pulled back. Its chart has double-bottomed and is rebounding like crazy. It's broken out of its 50-day moving average this week. Resistance is at $315, then the next at $335-345. There's more upside with the next leg higher coming. Momentum (MACD indicator) just made a bullish crossover, a positive signal. The On Balance Volume too. The RSI looks good, and can go higher. He liked their last quarter.
It has had quite a run with all the AI buzz. With it you have the same trade as you have with NVIDIA. It is a good business and will capture a solid portion of the software spend on AI. Ultimately though, how far away from commercialization is AI. The easy money has been made and IBM is over-valued at these levels.
Purchase of Red Hat really put them in the cloud and data centre business, saved them. Over last couple of years, execution of business plan was perfect. But more recently, especially in Q2 earnings, execution faltered. He's been adding in the $240 area. 12-month price target of $314.
It has transformed into a hybrid cloud and AI company. Software does remain the engine. Has $7.5 billion in AI related business. Margins are quietly improving with strong cash flow. Yield is 2.7%. It is a real contender in the quantum race. She sees 18% upside potential and in the longer run of 12 months 27%. Buy 8 Hold 10 Sell 2
(Analysts’ price target is $283.05)
It just reported great numbers and shares jumped 13%. Redhat has made this an AI winner. It rallied 34% last year. They've had 6 straight quarters of positive sales growth, leading to an earnings beat and excellent free cash flow. Their full year forecast includes accelerating revenue growth and free cash flow. YOY growth: infrastructure -8%, consulting -2%, software 10% which is the largest segment, amounting to 43% of 2024 revenues. Software got stronger as 2024 wore on, and this segment could make up 50% of IBM's business. Specifically, Red Hat grew 16% YOY in Q4 and automation 15%. Watson X and Red Hat are key growers, enjoying the AI tailwind. Their GenAI business generates over $5 billion of business, growing by $2 billion, quarter-over-quarter. That said, shares went sideways last October given a miss in their consulting business, but the CEO feels AI will return this segment to growth in 2026. Tailwinds: a good backlog, record signing in Q4, and business in GenAI all support accelerating growth in low-single digits. Caveat: their PE is 24x PE and 22x in 2026, instead of around 10x, but their return to steady growth justifies the PE and software will generate more recurring revenue. An indirect AI play that won't be hurt by DeepSeek.