Stockchase Opinions

Irwin Michael, B.Com, MBA Ithaca Energy Inc. IAE-T BUY ON WEAKNESS Jan 13, 2012

North Sea drilling. Canadian company, virtually name only. While their NAV is well through $3, they've had a number of delays. Particularly they’re waiting on a ship coming out of Dubai that has to pass through Straits of Hormuz. The longer this takes, they lose $.05 a share of cash flow from the new Athena. On the positive side, they’re producing at the rate of 5000 barrels a day. Athena will get them up to about 10,000. Would buy this one under $2 and sell it close to $2.75-$3.
$2.150

Stock price when the opinion was issued

oil gas
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SELL ON STRENGTH

Buy at $2 and sell at $2.75-$3. The Street loves it. Trading well below NAV. It could be in play. Take a little profit above $2.60.

COMMENT

Essentially a play on North Sea oil. A development company that just manages to find ways to never deliver, it is always next year’s story. He just got tired of the name.

DON'T BUY

Was supposed to be a takeover quite a while ago and he lost patience with it. This one always seems to be next year’s story.

SELL

Believes this is worth more than what it is trading at. He exited his position because he was very frustrated that they didn’t take any the offers that came their way. Although he has a high regard for management, one of the issues is that management is well paid, but they don’t own a lot of stock, so there is no big incentive for them.

DON'T BUY

(Looking for a short term trade.) Had a couple of tests of just under a $3 resistance point. Couldn’t break that and the most recent support of $2.54 was take out. Technically he would be a little nervous of it and would like to see it break $2.50 before getting too excited.

DON'T BUY

It should be getting Brent prices, but he has never been a fan of the North Sea.

DON'T BUY

Base building through mid-’13 to mid-’13. Now it is going through a horizontal trading range. $2.30 is important support.

COMMENT

Had really liked management, but they had rebuffed a couple of takeover offers, so he sold his holdings. The North Sea is an expensive place to produce oil. They are prudent managers, so he expects they probably have a third to a half of their production hedged for 6 months to a year.

COMMENT

This is a North Sea play. Their biggest field, Stella, is expected to come online in January. Assuming it comes online as planned, the stock looks very cheap, trading at about 4.5X debt adjusted cash flow. Its peers are trading more at 6-8 times. Expect there will be some re-rating once the Stella field comes online.

HOLD

This has a stellar project in the UK. They’ve had lots of delays in getting the platform, and basically there was a lot of expectations for them to have a massive increase in cash flow a long time ago. It does look like it is going to hit this year, even with another delay. They’ll probably get production going substantially above previous levels. The stock is very, very cheap. They’ll take the cash flow and bring down debt, and the stock should get re-rated. There is plenty of potential if things go right.