Harvest Energy Trust (HTE.UN.TO) Buy, Sell or…

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Harvest Energy Trust (HTE.UN.TO)

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COMMENT

(Market Call Minute.) High-risk situation. Right at the top of the list of potential distribution cuts.

SELL

(Market Call Minute.) This is a Short. Refining margins and kind of spotty production on the upstream.

DON'T BUY

Oil and gas. Have a refinery in Newfoundland. Results in Q3 surprised analysts on the upside by refining margins. Debt levels are above his comfort level. Payout ratio is also high. Can't see distributions being sustainable.

DON'T BUY

32.5% gross yield and is unsustainable. High levels of debt. Half of their business is their East Coast refinery and refinery margins have really been squeezed. Their upstream business of oil/gas has been affected because of commodity prices.

DON'T BUY

Good management but this is not a name he would be buying. Upstream has been disappointing lately. It also has the refinery piece on the side. A lot of debt. Distribution could be liable to a cut.

WEAK BUY

Hurt earlier in year and should come back.

DON'T BUY

Refinery spreads are starting to get a little bit better. There are some capital expenditure situations coming up. They may need to raise a lot of capital in the next year or so.

DON'T BUY

Unique in that they have a refinery as well as oil/gas production. Debt level is too high and he thinks they will have to cut distributions. In order to expand their refinery, they are looking at capital expenditures approved of $2 billion.

COMMENT

(Market Call Minute.) Looking at their debt levels, she would not be interested in this. It would be either a Sell or Hold.

DON'T BUY

Crude oil producer and refiner. They're refinery needs more capital expenditure to continue to producing. Took on a lot of debt and their balance sheet is slightly stretched. Expect distributions will not be maintained at the present level.

DON'T BUY

Have had horrible performance out of their refinery in Come By Chance. Looking to do a retrofit that is well beyond their scope. Will have to bring in a partner or raise some capital. One of the highest payout ratios and debt levels in royalty trusts.

DON'T BUY

Conventional energy trust, which he likes. Also owns the Come By Chance refinery, which is the big albatross around its neck. Getting to the range where if they got rid of the refinery it would do well but if they keep it, they’ll use their cash flow to keep it running.

HOLD

(Market Call Minute.) Has a significant refining business and is under a lot of pressure. If oil prices go higher, it will be under pressure.

SELL

17% yield, which should make you suspicious. Having difficulty, mainly because of their Come by Chance refinery. Margins are very poor in the refinery business right now. Highly likely the distribution will be cut.

BUY

Fundamentally what is backing up energy stories is still very much intact. A big believer in energy. In the next week or two, there could be a little pullback but this one hasn't had the big spike like others so you could buy now.

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Harvest Energy Trust (HTE.UN.TO)