Stockchase Opinions

Brett Girard, CPA, CA, CFA HEICO CORP HEI-N BUY Jan 13, 2020

In the last 5 years, its dividend has grown 18% annually. You're paid to wait. Good. Over 10 years, the stock is up nearly 1,000%. They've done a good job supplying replacement parts for planes. Also, a growing segment is outer space, which has a long runway. Their price and dividend has performed very well historically.
$122.130

Stock price when the opinion was issued

transportation equip & components
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WAIT
They make OEM for commercial airlines, and electronic components for airlines, the military and NASA. Half the business is doing okay while the other is cocooning. They hit a high a year ago, and has come down after a stock split. The smallcap manufacturers are under the gun in recent years from weakening demand and profitability will be tough looking ahead. He's waiting for a vaccine and an economic pickup before buying more smallcaps, including this.
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TOP PICK
Heico makes replacement parts for old airplanes, and has been thriving on Boeing’s woes. It boasts a 57.74% total return in the past year at a 15.95% profit margin. More impressive, reports David Driscoll, since 1970 Heico has risen 10,000% (on par with Amazon) and its parts have never been in an accident in that time. Brett Girard adds that Heico’s aerospace division will benefit from the cosmic plans of Jeff Bezos and Richard Branson who are building an outer space tourism industry. Luckily, Heico dodged the trade war, because it has no business in China. However, Driscoll warns that Heico has flown too high, too fast, currently trading at a PE just under 50. Wait for a 20% pullback, then hang onto it.
BUY
HEI makes generic, cheaper airplane parts and has a long track record. Thus, they enjoy wide margins.
BUY ON WEAKNESS

Very high quality business.
Never cheap enough to justify investment.
Company very skilled at M&A.
Strong demand for aircraft parts.
Would invest if share price ever falls.
Sees demand for air travel growing.

HOLD

Apart from the most recent earnings, the street loves this name. Selling plane parts, it benefits from the shortage of new plays and increased plane repairs. They have mini-monopolies on these parts and is pushing prices aggressively, a good business model. The valuation has run up, though. He isn't looking at this now. Prefers Raytheon for its performance. You're fine to keep holding it though.

HOLD
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

HEI is a high-quality name in the aerospace industry; the company possesses a track record of compounding EPS by double-digits through acquisitions lasting for decades. In Q3-2024, HEI reported revenue growth of 37% to $992M, slightly below the expectation of $994M, and EBITDA also grew 40% to $2.84B. HEI also reported EPS of $0.97, beating the estimate of $0.92. HEI’s Flight Support segment experienced very strong demand with around 15% organic growth. HEI also runs a moderately leveraged balance sheet with net debt/EBITDA of 2.11x. Overall the result looks okay, in line with expectations, but its valuation is still not cheap enough to add at the current levels. Still, we would be comfortable holding HEI here for the long term.
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BUY ON WEAKNESS

Has owned shares in the past. Very good business. Consistently profitable. High barriers to entry. Share price not cheap. Would wait for share price to fall before buying. 

HOLD

Aerospace sector has done very well. Demand for components will still be great.

BUY ON WEAKNESS
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

HEI has seen a bit of a pullback recently but is still up 32% over the last year. Growth seemed to slow a bit in the last quarter and trading at 55X earnings doesn't leave a whole lot of room for error. Regardless, we don't think a whole lot has changed with a single earnings report here and we don't think a thesis needs to change at this stage. We would be comfortable as a HOLD and would be more of a BUY if it approached $220.
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BUY

They benefit from peer Boeing whose accident rate continues to rise. They make OEM parts for commercial planes, and their electronics division has contracts with US Defence.