Halliburton Co (HAL)

(A Top Pick November 10/17 - Down 5%.) Continuous to like it. They have had some issues similar to what Canadian companies have in terms of not being able to get the product out. Not enough pipelines. It is happening in the Permian Basin, in Texas. Easier to solve there. He is expecting $2 a share in 2018 in terms of earnings and $3 next year and the stock is going to reflect that.

An Oil/gas service company? This has done well and broken above its 200-day moving average. It’s broken through that and is now moving higher. The question is, where are oil prices going. If oil prices go too high or move too quickly, then people are going to turn on the taps and oil producers will come back online. On the other hand, they could start doing other things with the money, which would give room for oil prices to move higher. Finds it hard to believe oil will be back to $100, particularly with technology we are seeing these days.

The oil service stocks are starting to show signs of seasonal strength. The seasonal period of strength is from the middle of December right through until the end of April. Technically, the stock completed a reverse head and shoulders pattern, implying upside. Dividend yield of 1.5%. (Analysts' price target is $54.)

Sell Halliburton (HAL-N) and buy Schlumberger (SLB-N) to avoid the superficial tax loss? This is one way of doing it. The rule is that you can't buy back the same security within 30 days. He prefers Halliburton.

(A Top Pick May 5/17. Down 8%.) Has put this in the International portfolio, really in the context of trying to capture some of the recovery of the oil cycle. The majors are starting to do a little bit of spending. Thinks there is more upside here and it is very cheap.

The #2 oil/gas services company globally, and the leader in US fracturing services. The stock has done nothing for a while because it is a pretty big conglomerate with a lot of debt and multiple services, with some areas still in the doldrums. Prefers some of the more pure-play companies in the US.

An oil service company. Along with the industry, they have come out of a trough that they hadn’t seen since the late 1980s. It was a very deep trough, and they are coming out of it. Their latest report was very upbeat. Rig counts are improving. They are gaining share internationally. Where just a week before, Schlumberger (SLB-N) had said their international business was suffering, this company came on and said “Ours isn’t”. Dividend yield of 1.6%. (Analysts’ price target is $54.)

(A Top Pick May 5/17. Down 7.97%.) Has a positive outlook on energy. Ultimately OPEC is going to be partial to higher prices over time. If we get in the $50-$55 range, there is tightness in the rig count in the US and some softness in the summer on oil prices, which will be good for this company. He still likes the story.

Fundamentally, the oil markets need to take duration (?) from the fact that Saudi Aramco has gone public. Saudi’s are getting $2 trillion and are trying to get close to 3, so they are looking to cut supply. When they cut supply, we’ll see higher prices and they’ll make way for US shale. They are planning the next phase of the Saudi economy on the back of that monetized asset. To monetize their assets to the highs levels, they are going to need higher prices. That means there is going to be more drilling, and this company is leveraged to that story. Dividend yield of 1.6%. (Analysts’ price target is $64.50.)

In general he has always recommended this company. It is excellent quality. Where he sees a challenge going forward is when you think about what is happening in the energy industry and other industries. Energy faces a couple of challenges of 1) low energy prices and 2) the environmental movement. Thinks offshore drilling is going to be under a lot of pressure going forward. You are essentially pouring $10 million into the ground, and maybe getting a pay off in 3, 4, 5 or 6, and that is a long time in a very uncertain world. They may not do as well as they have historically.