Robert FloydGerdau Ameristeel CorpGNA.TOBUYAug 03, 2004
This company is in the great space right now. Earnings coming out our moving ahead at a dramatic rate. Steel is in high demand. Order book is filling up in the first few days of every month.
(A Top Pick Oct 2/09. Down 8.4%.) A higher torque name, which puts a little spice in your portfolio and is part of the infrastructure story. Still a Buy.
Structural steel and construction industry in North America has been in a downturn over the last couple of years. There are some early signs that we may have hit the bottom. If you're horizon is 12-24 months, you can buy, otherwise he would wait.
Recent quarter was okay but is a little concerned about the space. Import battles are starting between countries. Utilization rates for steel mills in the US are well below what is appropriate for making good money. A lot of hype about infrastructure spending but state and local spending are going down.
One of the few plays left to play pure steel stocks in North America. Global player. Would be cautious on steel companies today because of the significant ramp up of production in China while prices have been pretty well flat. Demand could be down because of economies. Earnings coming out on Nov 5.
A stimulus play. You can get a lot of alpha out of this play if there continues to be a lot of stimulus money going into the economy. Try to get it below $8.
Steel. Has started a new major up leg having made a congestive area and the stock is on the break up. Above the 200 day moving average. Fantastic stock.
Steel making is one of the areas that he thinks he is going to invest in. This company is one of the minors in this sector. If we don't get the trickle-down effect from infrastructure spending, larger companies may still be able to get good earnings. Likes the company. (See Top Picks.)
By the middle of next year, there will be a view that the emerging economies are really pushing hard to prop up their economic growth. Currently there is a lot of concern about the steel industry and the impact of the slowing economy. ROE level is high. PE is 2X on a trailing basis and 3X on a forward basis. His only concern is the yield of 8.8% and carrying a lot of debt.
Steels are basically cyclicals and you want to be out of them at the top of the market and buying when the economy starts to pick up. Earnings can come down substantially as demand for the product drops. Another big influence is dumping of steel. Would probably Buy as we progress through this slowdown.