Stockchase Opinions

Greg NewmanGibson EnergyGEI.TOBUYSep 25, 2025

A higher-quality player that you could put $$ into today. 

$27.19

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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HOLD
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

Payout on earnings is 124%. On cash flow 57%. Debt is still very high, which adds risks, but we would not view the dividend as in jeopardy. The dividend was last raised in February. While we consider it OK for income, we would not see it as reducing portfolio risk on the current companies noted in the question.
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BUY
KEY vs. GEI and stop losses.

Both really good, likes them both a lot. KEY has better growth now, but trades at a much higher valuation. GEI trades ~14x, with still a very good growth rate. 

Don't do stop losses for good companies that are paying you 6-7% to wait. You get stopped out, the stock starts to come back, and then when do you get back in? If it goes down 10-15% (which is very unusual), or even 30%, it doesn't mean the news flow has changed for a good stock. 

WEAK BUY

Trades more cheaply than some other names in the midstream space. Mostly focused on oil infrastructure. Not a bad business, but sees more growth in natural gas with LNG Canada and with power consumption. Nothing wrong with the name. Yield is almost 7%.

She prefers PPL, but you could own both.

Disclosure:  She doesn't own it, but a partner in her firm does and he likes it.

BUY

The energy sector in the TSX looks good for risk/reward with natural gas tailwinds. It has sold off a bit but there is 10 to 11% growth and its multiple is a lot lower than its peers. Has a good dividend. You could add in the $23 range.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 17/24, Up 12%)

(All the past picks today were from October, when he thought we were late cycle. His view is that we've started a new cycle, so tech and consumer discretionary risk-on names should do better.) Thought we were heading into a market peak, which is when a lot of inflation plays do well. The 4-year cycle reset typically lasts ~34 weeks (8 months), and that's what we saw in 2022 from January to October. This year, we went through that in roughly 8 weeks. 

Pushing to new highs. Fundamental analyst on the team likes this name a lot. Hold, but don't buy more here.

DON'T BUY

It is shown as a sell. Its overall free cash flow of 2.5% is modest but standard. Look elsewhere for total investment opportunities in this sector, eg. Imperial Oil.

WATCH

Name to look at in the same space as FTS, but at a much better valuation.

BUY

Likes the stock and the whole energy infrastructure space. It's a place you can hang out along with gold and yield plays. Doesn't get a lot of respect from the market. Q4 saw a market loss, but that's only 11% of NAV. 

Raised dividend by 5%. Baytex deal is accretive by ~1% to stable, long-term cashflows. Likes the infrastructure growth shown in Q4. Strong balance sheet, decent payout ratio, very high dividend. Cheap at 11.7x PE for 2027, and modelling ~14% EPS growth.

DON'T BUY

Some upside potential as measured by FMV, perhaps 28%. Has set back to technical support. Overall chart for 10 years shows a company whose balance sheet is slowly, slowly eroding. Balance sheet quality is OK, but doesn't make his socks roll up and down. Nice dividend, but not covered for the next 12 months.

BUY

An opportunity, as it just sold off on marketing segment.

Growth estimates of pipelines have really gone up in past few months with nat gas prices going higher. More throughput looking likely on Trans Mountain. More incentive in Canada to talk about moving oil East-West and North-South.

COMMENT

Is one of his largest holdings. It's had a rough week. Their infrastructure business stores oil in Alberta and Texas, and they have a marketing business. The latter has been weak and volatile. The dividend is sustainable; cash flow covers it. Is not worried about tariffs.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 17/24, Up 7%)

(Note the short timeframe.) Great chart, continues to work. Still likes it.

BUY

We're all trying to figure out which stocks tariffs will either impact or leave unscathed. There's a thirst for natural gas, and we need to get it offshore as part of the bridge to totally clean energy. A good choice for new $$ now.

DON'T BUY

Would lean away from company. Large portion of EBITDA comes from marketing - not take or pay contracts (guaranteed income). Better options for midstream investors like Pembina.