Freeport McMoran Copper & GoldFCXDON'T BUYSep 19, 2013Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Sep 08, 2026. Market Open.
Copper prices are up 18% this year and 48% in the past year, booming from data centre demand. FCX is the best way to play copper. Copper stocks have pulled back recently, but Lang says are due to rebound the rest of the year. FCX's chart shows higher highs and higher lows on strong volumes. The RSI has fallen from overbought levels, so pull the trigger now. The MACD shows a bullish formation now; FCX could break out to $80, then $100. There's strong call option buying, also suggesting $100.
Secular growth of the copper market, as copper's used more and more in today's society. Recent turmoil in Iran has boosted price of copper.
Today's earnings report was good, but the mine site of last year's tragedy won't be online as quickly as anticipated. Pretty good entry point, though expect the price to wallow for a while.
There are two views for copper. The cyclical one is hard to peg and it's hard to know what is going on in China. The secular view takes into account the ever increasing usage of copper which will probably double by the end of the decade due to data centres, etc. EV's use 4 times the amount of copper than conventional vehicles. Own it for the long term.
In the top 10 for copper and gold. Represents ~4% of global copper supply. Mudslide caused fatalities, mine shut down, estimated to not return to prior levels until 2027. Tightens up an already-tight market. About 35% of production comes from US, so uniquely positioned for Trump's "Made in America".
He prefers TECK and CS, for more leverage to copper.
With this you have to have a call on copper prices. Over the next year he thinks copper prices will essentially stay where they are. Previously this was a pure play copper company. Spun off some assets in the energy patch, but eventually bought back. He questions the way they went about buying and the capital they used and was it necessarily in the best interest of the shareholders. Also, this distracted them from their core business. Assets are okay. Stock is going to be a play on what is happening with the underlying commodity and he thinks copper doesn’t do any more than $4 a pound over the next year. Probably fine for a longer-term holder.