Opinions Javed Mirza
Energy Fuels Inc.EFR.TOHOLDAug 14, 2025
Javed MirzaStock price when the opinion was issued
You might be interested:
"The longer the base, the better the case." Broke out hard, and you could even argue it went parabolic. Now taking a rest. Look at a 1-year chart for this one. Broke the neckline top. You can see a small zip up recently, but he'd want to see a base, and it's too early to say.
Absolutely don't buy now. But if it based, he'd look to buy on a breakout.
His firm was on the uranium train before it was cool. This one went parabolic, needs to pause. Can't argue with a big breakout (the longer the base, the bigger the case). Would be healthy for stock to consolidate and then break out again.
Because of the move, no support points on the chart point he can point to. If it starts to move down, each investor has to determine their own "uncle" point.
Sector's been pretty hot, one reason being that data centres will need nuclear power. Stock's gone parabolic, which is when he gets concerned. You want to see if this new level of ~$30 holds. Just because it goes parabolic, doesn't mean it has to come back down to trend. Watch over the next few days to see how it absorbs the massive gain.
On a 3-year chart, you can see the massive breakout. Time to employ some money-management techniques, such as selling down (not out of) your position.
Parabolic, so likely to pull back possibly to the breakout point (~$11 or so). Breakouts are good; if it can stay above that point for 2-3 weeks, then you probably have a winner on your hands. As long as it doesn't break that breakout point, he'd be inclined to buy more. Very good-looking chart.
The acquisition was actually announced in April, ans is just moving towards completion now. Business-wise, we think it is a decent deal to combine the two companies, gain synergies and get a better valuation as a larger company. BUT....it was a very big premium for the deal, and the deal will see EFR issue a lot of new shares. This is what concerned investors, we believe, and the stock is down 33% YTD. The sector has struggled somewhat, but EFR has lots of cash and is expected to be profitable next year. We do not like the momentum, but it looks better at the lower price. For those who really want exposure to the sector we would be OK with a started position today.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
The Donald Project is an attractive asset with potential, but it will cost capital to develop. EFR has committed to spend $122M and issue $17.5M in shares to earn 49%. While a good asset for future growth, investors looked at the spending level and share dilution and got a bit concerned. But the initial spend level is quite small and a future 'go' decision is further out and still dependent on various factors. We would not really see this news as 'bad', just regular operations for a small cap company seeking to develop more assets. Mines do require lots of capital.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
EFR has been quite volatile over the last few years, but things have been trending up recently and the stock is up 11% over the last year. Recent growth has been very high and first quarter earnings recorded significant EBITDA growth. The balance sheet continues to be strong with essentially no debt and $194M in net cash. Cash from operations and free cash flows were positive in the recent quarter as well. It is very expensive when looking at multiples but that is more-so due to the current stage the company is at. We are interested in the $8.50's range.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
He owned this and covered his investment. EFR will benefit from Pres. Biden subsidizing the uranium business. EFR benefits from having relatively advanced projects in the U.S. The easy money has been made already in uranium stocks, but there remains money to be made here for the next 5 years. The uranium metals market has moved from a short-term to a long-term market, which increases investor security. Speculators could take profits in these stocks, while investors can stay long.
Looking at the move on the chart, this is where it gets kind of sticky. Take a lesson from CCO....
CCO is the bellwether, and a big part of URA, a uranium ETF. On the chart for CCO, you can see that it's had the same move as EFR, but starting to stall out a bit. Starting to consolidate in time. Important support around $85, a 10-15% correction. Likes the chart longer term, but at these high levels it's like flipping a coin. He'd be nervous to put on a big position, especially with his view that a correction is coming in next 1-3 months.