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Stockchase Discover
Dollarama Inc.
DOL-T
BUY
May 16, 2023
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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This is no income stock at a 0.25% dividend yield, and currently DOL shares are only $12.50 below highs of $152.97. Also, the PE of 35.88x is historically stretched. DOL traded at 30.3x to end 2022 and 31.3x three years ago. However, as Stockchaser Trevor Rose notes, Dollarama is a fine long-term hold. With volatility likely in January, pick this one up on a 5-10% pullback when its valuation normalizes.
Still adding for new clients. Key has been that it has very little competition, unlike US counterparts. You pay up for that position, at 35x forward PE, but you get 15% earnings growth going forward.
Beneficiary of cumulative effects of inflation and uncertainty in Canadian economy. Recession-resilient business model. Outpaced the TSX since its IPO in 2009.
Wouldn't buy now. Has benefited from the economic uncertainty, and so valuation has come up dramatically. North of 35x PE, so risk that could contract over the long term. Wonderful business, well positioned with price points to capture a larger portion of wallets in tough times.
Last conference call referenced a small impact from sourcing from China, with the hit to margins yet to be seen.
Let’s start with this homegrown success story. Since February 2020, DOL has moved from $39 to $84 currently, close to 52-week highs. DOL has beaten or met its last four quarters, it continues to expand, it trades at a low 0.72 beta at 30.41x earnings. That’s lower than the 34x in 2022, but lately has crept above its 5-year average of 28.23x. Read The dollar wars for our full analysis.