Opinions
Cameron Hurst
Walt Disney Co.
DIS-N
WAIT
Aug 07, 2018
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Spike in stock is due to fears of an economic slowdown being put at bay. Theme parks are expanding, but will depend on macro environment. ESPN is more challenged. Disney+ is challenged because NFLX is beating everybody. Paying 20x PE for 12-13% growth. Doesn't dislike the name, but some segments are having a tough go.
Mixed feelings. On the positive side, doing exceptionally well in streaming with a great library and great branding. Cross-sells better than anyone. Worried about the parks in the short term -- consumer slowdown, expecting global backlash against the US. Hard to bet against its 6-decade growth story for the long term. Balance sheet in fine shape, decent cashflow. Yield is 0.8%.
Streaming turned profitable by end of 2024, finally, after a reorganization, and is now a major growth driver. Theme parks have been the largest profit generator and they keep coming out with new parks; people are paying high amounts to enjoy them. He expects healthy earnings to come. They will announce a deal between their ESPN and the NFL--sports drives huge profits. Everything is going right, but they need to appoint a successor to Bob Iger.
There are many deals in the works, nothing has closed and there is regulatory risk. These potential deals are risky reasons to invest in Disney. However, looking at Disney itself, this is the best monetization machine in the industry. For example, when they bought LucasFilm, they turned Star Wars into film, theme parks, TV shows, and consumer products. They’re also working on streaming, but there are risks with this. Aside from the sports franchise, they’re doing everything right. And the sports-related issues are well known by investors. The price consolidated for a while. It’s been rising again, but not too much. Disney is a discipline acquirer, so if the deals do come through, they will be good. However, he can’t buy the company at this time because media, as a group, is not showing market leadership. He will wait until the industry that includes Disney starts to perform better. Much of the recent rally in media is M&A premium, which is not a good basis for a long-term investment.