Stock price when the opinion was issued
Lumpy road to recovery, but Iger's making progress. Streaming is becoming profitable. Content offerings are turning around, with a huge library. Parks have slowed, investment has increased; yet still a destination vacation for many across the world. Good growth in cruise ships. Undemanding multiple under 20x PE. She's being patient; upside from here.
A lot going on here in recent years, but just a few years ago, the stock was nearly doubled, based on hopes for Disney+. That said, they will be a long-term winner in streaming; their content is strong around the world. Also, their theme parks keep selling, and are expanding internationally. Probably we've seen peak Marvel, but Disney holds a deep catalogue of content, including Star Wars. If they can sort out management and make streaming profitable, they should return to 20% margins.
Spike in stock is due to fears of an economic slowdown being put at bay. Theme parks are expanding, but will depend on macro environment. ESPN is more challenged. Disney+ is challenged because NFLX is beating everybody. Paying 20x PE for 12-13% growth. Doesn't dislike the name, but some segments are having a tough go.
She is buying this for her new clients. The media sector as a whole has had an overhang, in terms of how people are consuming media and how it is going to be priced going forward. What they have going for them is their content and the type of content. ESPN is a big overhang, because people are streaming and not buying the big cable packages. Sports is a type of medium that people generally want to watch live. They announced they’re going to launch a consumer product for ESPN next year. Eventually they see it as a “pick and pay” where you can choose specific shows. They’ve also announced a consumer product for 2019 for their Disney content. For a long-term investment, this is an attractive entry point.