Opinions Paul Harris, CFA
Deutsche Bank AGDBDON'T BUYMar 12, 2018
Paul Harris, CFAStock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 05, 2026. Market Open.
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DB has fallen 94% since just before 2008 and on paper, this is a very similar pattern to CS. DB is down ~6% today and its Credit Default Swaps (CDS) have been moving substantially higher today, indicating that investors are paying up for insurance in the event that DB fails or defaults. At times, these events can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, and a material decline in its share price can lead to fewer funding options and a worse liquidity picture for the company. The Fed and other central banks around the world established open swap lines the other weekend so that in the event of depositors withdrawing funds from a foreign bank, that foreign bank can call upon the Fed and receive par for US Treasury Bills, even if they are well below par on the market. This was not established when CS failed, and we feel that this might help to alleviate any issues with DB.
Overall, as we've learned, these events can happen fast, and we're not ruling out the possibility of DB failing, but everyone, including the Fed and the US Treasury are keeping a closer eye on these possibilities and we think that higher level of scrutiny should help to quickly respond to any weaknesses in the bank.
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Chris Stuchberry
There are better European banks to own. It's a little expensive. They are large in capital markets, but not in (German) retail. In the corporate finance side they invested heavily in fixed income. Balance sheet isn't as good as other banks and they'll probably issue more equity down the road. They're trying to sell their asset management business, which is wrong, because it generates fees. Plus, there's more re-structuring to come. Their culture has to change. Santander, Barclays, Lloyds and ING are better.