Michele Robitaille
Canwest Media Networks Income Fund
CWM.UN-T
DON'T BUY
Mar 18, 2006
CanWest MediaWorks is a relatively new IPO.They have a national presence. Predicts good growth. However newspaper circulation has had a downward trend over the last fifteen years. Very aggressive on payout which is around 100%. Caution. Better opportunities elsewhere.
In light of the recent announcement on broadcasting, this is a company that in the long-term could be fairly vulnerable. Also, currently its valuation is a bit rich.
Likes the business over all. Has a bias to the western papers. There is an overhang of stock at CanWest but it is very unlikely to be in your face while you are under $10.
Has gone down from the new issue due to a lack of demand for shares. Odds have been stacked against them. Represents value at $8 or below, but once it gets over the $9 level there is no reason to own it.
People are worried that print media advertising will disappear. They owns major journals in major markets. He doesn't see these journals disappearing. Payout ratio of about 95%. The 1.5% yield.
(A Top Pick July 28/06. Down 7.7%.) A very stable, long-term business. Expects media assets, longer term, will continue to have good value. Well-suited to the trust model.
(A Top Pick Oct 13/06. Down 10.5%.) Had been coming close to almost market value. At this price, if private equity came in they could almost get their 20% IRR. Sold his holdings, but will look at it in 30 days.
Large newspapers in large cities across Canada. About 65% of their revenue and cash flow comes from western Canada. They are a little bit tight with their payout ratio. Good price.
Will possibly be going private. Can-West Media is a major player and they are not going to be pushed into paying a high price for this asset. You might get $1-$1.50 more.
Did not end up being quite as successful an IPO as they had hoped. Their parent, Canwest Global (CGS-T) are in the process of selling off their Austrian and New Zealand assets, which will give them a lot of cash and expects them to buy this trust back at about $9.