Ravi Sood
Canwest Media Networks Income Fund
CWM.UN-T
BUY
Jul 21, 2006
Has gone down from the new issue due to a lack of demand for shares. Odds have been stacked against them. Represents value at $8 or below, but once it gets over the $9 level there is no reason to own it.
In light of the recent announcement on broadcasting, this is a company that in the long-term could be fairly vulnerable. Also, currently its valuation is a bit rich.
Likes the business over all. Has a bias to the western papers. There is an overhang of stock at CanWest but it is very unlikely to be in your face while you are under $10.
People are worried that print media advertising will disappear. They owns major journals in major markets. He doesn't see these journals disappearing. Payout ratio of about 95%. The 1.5% yield.
(A Top Pick July 28/06. Down 7.7%.) A very stable, long-term business. Expects media assets, longer term, will continue to have good value. Well-suited to the trust model.
(A Top Pick Oct 13/06. Down 10.5%.) Had been coming close to almost market value. At this price, if private equity came in they could almost get their 20% IRR. Sold his holdings, but will look at it in 30 days.
Large newspapers in large cities across Canada. About 65% of their revenue and cash flow comes from western Canada. They are a little bit tight with their payout ratio. Good price.
Will possibly be going private. Can-West Media is a major player and they are not going to be pushed into paying a high price for this asset. You might get $1-$1.50 more.
Did not end up being quite as successful an IPO as they had hoped. Their parent, Canwest Global (CGS-T) are in the process of selling off their Austrian and New Zealand assets, which will give them a lot of cash and expects them to buy this trust back at about $9.