Chevron Texaco (CVX)

Doesn't show the pattern he looks for. Indicators are low. Looks like it is oversold. Could look at the XLE-US which is the basket of the energy sector US ETF. Could add to this name or wait and see if the whole space is actually moving up and at the same time watch Chevron to see if it is going to catch up.

This company has downstream as well, so it is protected somewhat. However, these companies are just facing such strong headwinds. If you are not prepared to sit on this for quite a long period of time, there are other places to go.

(Top Pick Mar 26/14, Down 7.57%) Still a favourite in the oil space. His model price is $87.63 or -17% and is has a 4.62% yield. He owns it on a net asset value basis.

(Top Pick Jan 14/14, Down 4.64%) As it comes down he will buy more. Has a 7% upside in his model. The majors have the pick of the lot in terms of assets.

(A Top Pick Jan 2/14. Down 9.55%.) The oils that came through, relatively speaking, were the senior integrateds. They got hurt, but they didn’t get pounded. The value is still strong.

Seasonal strength is from mid Feb. until May of each year. It is trying to form a base pattern, but it is too early right now. Okay to hold if you already own it.

In the very short term, there is pressure on the oil/gas sector. In the next month, he would expect this stock to go lower, but in 5 years, you will make money on this. In the next 6 months, a financial would probably do better.

Thinks this is in a good position. She invested in this originally because it had a lot of capital projects coming on line and a lot of spend going on. Whenever you have that type of spending, the investment community is always a little concerned about what your costs are going to come in at, in overruns, etc. She took an opportunity to Buy in that environment. Even through 2018, you are supposed to see a ramp up in their production. They have key assets in Asia and are still funding the growth there. A good asset.

(A Top Pick Jan 14/14. Down 1.35%.) This is an integrated and you want to look at the integrateds on both sides of the US and Canada border. There has been devastation in the oil patch, but this one is still flat and he loves that. He is also up about 10%-13% on the currency as well. This has an upside of 9% to his Model Price. (See Top Picks.)

If you are not warmish on the oil price, which he is not, the super majors are a more defensive way to be in this space. If you are going to be in energy, something like this or an Exxon Mobile (XOM-N), is probably is a safer way to play. They have a much higher return on capital than the Canadian entities. This company went through a fairly painful period of writing off a bunch of assets, but it looks like they are largely done with that now. Still have production in Russia, which some people are worried about, but this is a safer way to own energy.

(A Top Pick Oct 15/13. Down 2.99%.) He has a 34% upside with his model price of $150.84. These stocks could come down, but he sees this as a buying opportunity going forward.

(A Top Pick Oct 15/13. Up 9.49%.) Loves the value in this. His model price is $168.90, a 35% upside. To him this has potential to break up. There is a lot of implied value here. Nice dividend of 3.4%.

(A Top Pick Sept 20/13. Up 6.79%.) Still likes this. Have a lot of production coming on stream. Have some big projects off the coast of Australia where there have been a lot of concerns. Historically they have been very good at giving a very good return. Over the next several years, the shares should ramp significantly higher. 3.3% dividend yield.

International oils are being way overlooked in terms of value. His model price is $168.71, a 33% upside. Yield of 3.4%.

(Top Pick Jul 15/13, Up 8.63%) Others have huge upsides. There is a disconnect where we have global warming and these companies with all these reserves. These can’t be produced because it would take carbon emissions above 2%.