Chevron Texaco (CVX)

The 5% dividend is sustainable. The technical analysis is not supportive of plowing into energy at this point. He would prefer an E & P company. You have probably seen the lows in energy if oil does not go lower.

(A Top Pick Aug 15/14. Down 36.81%.) Still likes this, along with Exxon (XOM-N) and he would recommend both here. This is trading right on his model price. This has never traded at this cheap a valuation since 1995.

Bought this because of its diverse asset base. Their problem and why she bought into the stock, is their 2 big projects they are working on. Both are still in development and no production coming out of them. The company had a very strong history of generating good returns and have executed a lot of these large projects, so she bought into that fear expecting she would be fine. With the price of oil coming down, that has been problematic, because so much of their capital is tied up and committed to finishing the projects. This is going to be driven by the oil price.

Doesn't show the pattern he looks for. Indicators are low. Looks like it is oversold. Could look at the XLE-US which is the basket of the energy sector US ETF. Could add to this name or wait and see if the whole space is actually moving up and at the same time watch Chevron to see if it is going to catch up.

This company has downstream as well, so it is protected somewhat. However, these companies are just facing such strong headwinds. If you are not prepared to sit on this for quite a long period of time, there are other places to go.

(Top Pick Mar 26/14, Down 7.57%) Still a favourite in the oil space. His model price is $87.63 or -17% and is has a 4.62% yield. He owns it on a net asset value basis.

(Top Pick Jan 14/14, Down 4.64%) As it comes down he will buy more. Has a 7% upside in his model. The majors have the pick of the lot in terms of assets.

(A Top Pick Jan 2/14. Down 9.55%.) The oils that came through, relatively speaking, were the senior integrateds. They got hurt, but they didn’t get pounded. The value is still strong.

Seasonal strength is from mid Feb. until May of each year. It is trying to form a base pattern, but it is too early right now. Okay to hold if you already own it.

In the very short term, there is pressure on the oil/gas sector. In the next month, he would expect this stock to go lower, but in 5 years, you will make money on this. In the next 6 months, a financial would probably do better.

Thinks this is in a good position. She invested in this originally because it had a lot of capital projects coming on line and a lot of spend going on. Whenever you have that type of spending, the investment community is always a little concerned about what your costs are going to come in at, in overruns, etc. She took an opportunity to Buy in that environment. Even through 2018, you are supposed to see a ramp up in their production. They have key assets in Asia and are still funding the growth there. A good asset.

(A Top Pick Jan 14/14. Down 1.35%.) This is an integrated and you want to look at the integrateds on both sides of the US and Canada border. There has been devastation in the oil patch, but this one is still flat and he loves that. He is also up about 10%-13% on the currency as well. This has an upside of 9% to his Model Price. (See Top Picks.)

If you are not warmish on the oil price, which he is not, the super majors are a more defensive way to be in this space. If you are going to be in energy, something like this or an Exxon Mobile (XOM-N), is probably is a safer way to play. They have a much higher return on capital than the Canadian entities. This company went through a fairly painful period of writing off a bunch of assets, but it looks like they are largely done with that now. Still have production in Russia, which some people are worried about, but this is a safer way to own energy.

(A Top Pick Oct 15/13. Down 2.99%.) He has a 34% upside with his model price of $150.84. These stocks could come down, but he sees this as a buying opportunity going forward.

(A Top Pick Oct 15/13. Up 9.49%.) Loves the value in this. His model price is $168.90, a 35% upside. To him this has potential to break up. There is a lot of implied value here. Nice dividend of 3.4%.