Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA Constellation Software Inc. CSU-T DON'T BUY Nov 18, 2024

Usually in technical analysis you buy the breakout, especially when the chart shows a staircase pattern. Rally, consolidation, rally, consolidation, and so on. Some people say wait for a retest, which is about $4400. Risk is that it doesn't retest and just keeps on going. It becomes a bit of a coin toss.

Technically, there's a very significant technical breakout underway. Highly ranked on an RSI basis.

The valuation is always high, that's the problem (88x trailing PE, 50x forward). CSU needs a lot of acquisitions, but it has rewarded shareholders. He prefers Open Text of CGI.

 A beautiful chart. Let it run. But next year, he expects a correction, 15-20%. However, you can nibble at this now to build a position.

The chart is absolutely flowing, but don't buy it now. Don't write any calls, because the stock could take off. Try it at US$3,300 or $3,200 or $3,100. There's support at C$4,200, then $3,750--it shouldn't fall below this.

It is still growing by over 20% per year and trailing less than 20 X earnings. He is looking for a stock price 20 to 25% higher a year from now. It is getting international notice. Acquisitions are generally small and not big company changing ones. It is the best roll-up stock in Canada and one of the most attractive companies for new investors to buy. They don't do analyst calls.

The 3-year chart shows an upward trend. The 1-year is also a good chart with support at $4,200. Importantly, the stock is bouncing off that support. Looks pretty good.

Awesome compounder, strong uptrend. Only concern is that if we are, indeed, late cycle, infotech is going to be at risk. Don't put too much new $$ to work here. Wait for the bigger correction of a hefty 15-20%, likely later this year.

This name has a higher beta, and beta tells you how sensitive a stock is compared to the market.

Best software company in Canada. Growth by acquisition makes him pause, as things go well until that final acquisition hurts. Great job buying and integrating businesses. Growth being priced at an excessive premium. Solid growth but high, 40x multiple. 

He targets $4,900. It hasn't been hit like Shopify or Celestica, because CSU has so many horizontals. Microsoft has a software that is applied in many ways, but CSU is different. CSU applies their various software to specific industries, like a healthcare vertical/software. This diversification lowers volatility. Likes it.

One of a kind. One of the best compounders in the world. Big misconception is that the total addressable market is not that big. Fear that can't deploy capital for the same rate of return going forward as it has in the past. He very much disagrees with that. 

The addressable market is huge. Of course with a larger acquisition, you can't expect the same 25-30% after-tax rates of return. But on a blended basis, can still compound at very high rates of return. Yield is 0.13%.