Stockchase Opinions

Eric Nuttall Crew Energy Inc. CR-T DON'T BUY May 23, 2024

Some people own it for M&A takeover potential. He doesn't like to do that. It's a market where interest in small caps remains very low. Not hitting enough radar screens currently. Pursuing growth, so more modest cashflow. 

$4.310

Stock price when the opinion was issued

oil gas
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DON'T BUY
A junior oil company that has shown some recovery. He expects the seniors to move first and this group will likely lag. This would not be his favorite in the space. There are better opportunities.
DON'T BUY
A small to mid-cap energy producer. It trades at 1/10 of book value. However, they are subject to reserve valuations. The problem is their debt. The market is concerned about bankruptcy risk at these valuations. ROE is still low.
HOLD

CR-T vs IPO-T? He owns CR-T, whose production is 29% liquids. IPO-T is focused on 66% liquids. He likes both and they are very cheap. He would add to holdings on both. Both have good balance sheets. CR-T is buying back shares as well.

DON'T BUY
A natural gas producer with a growing liquids portfolio. It is simply too small for investors and their debt at 5 times cash flow is just not competitive. He would not own this one.
DON'T BUY

He used to own this when natural gas was $3-$4. The equity value of this company is being ground down, day after day. It has to spend money to keep going. Be careful with these small cap names. These will be one of the first ones that banks will require to consolidate due to credit exposures and bank line covenants. A high risk investment.

BUY
Enterprise value is very cheap. But the issue is they have debt. They did an infrastructure deal to reduce that debt. A big part of that debt is a 2024 maturity at a low interest rate, so Crew will survive. Their liquids are in a condensate-rich area. The stock has been hammered because of high debt. He's bought more of this in the past week.
RISKY
It is a stock that is very cheap. With high energy prices, that has lifted all of these companies. It was as low as 10% of its book value. His fair market value has been going literally straight up. He would stay with it. He recommended it as a speculative buy a while ago as it made sense. He would prefer to buy a junior oil ETF rather than bet on one junior oil company.
PARTIAL BUY
He targets $6.40. Trade this and don't bet the farm. It now trades at $5.20. It moves up if oil prices do.
DON'T BUY

Nat gas prices have been slaughtered, which impacts this one. Likes that it managed to cut production. Bit of an overhang in nat gas, so there's an overhang on valuations. He focuses on the larger integrated players like CNQ.