Stockchase Opinions

Peter Arender, CFA Canadian Pacific Rail CP-T BUY Apr 21, 2004

Not accompany you normally get excited about. Having been growing earnings like mad and not the best Co. out there, but at a good price..
$30.980

Stock price when the opinion was issued

Transportation
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BUY

He doesn't own this, but CNR, and CP is the better bet. CP is now bouncing off a long-term trend line of support. There was a support around $105 in 2024.

WEAK BUY

High quality, stock's done reasonably well. Overhang on this name and CNR because of tariff talk and what that would do to the shipment of goods across the border, a potential headwind to watch. Strong dividend. Add and hold for the next 10-30 years, as rails will continue to be an important mode of transportation across NA.

BUY

Cheaper on price to growth than CNR. 

BUY
CP vs. CNR

Chart looks better and fundamentals work. When those 2 factors go hand in hand, it's quite compelling. Has outperformed CNR.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

First-class management. Most unique footprint of any rail in NA. Tariff uncertainty impacts it the most, as it facilitates trade among US, Canada, and Mexico. It's held in really well. Attractive 20x PE, but tariffs will impact growth.

He did think about exiting, as he looked out over 4 years and saw potential economic weakness on the horizon. But it's a trophy asset, one to own long term. He decided to hold on, and to buy a bit more if it does get hit.

HOLD
Rails long-term for teenager's TFSA?

Good idea. She owns CNR. Together, CP and CNR have a duopoloy within Canada plus operations in the US. Rails have not performed that well this past year. Tariffs won't impact directly, but risk is that economic slowdown would affect volumes. CNR trades ~18x forward PE, and wide discount to CP, so she'd pick CNR.

BUY

Its main business is a great one and they have sold off their non-core assets. At 23X earnings it trades at a premium to the sector. The buying of the Kansas City line gives them a franchise from Canada to Mexico. It is good to buy for the long term as well as CN Rail.

WATCH

Owned this years ago and should have hung on. Looking to get back into rails (possibly this name), hoping for a correction because of tariffs, but the market's too smart.

BUY
CNR vs CP

Owns both, core holdings. No one's building any more rails. Cheaper to ship commodities by rail than any other way. If an economic slowdown, traffic and volumes will slow down but it's still a pretty steady business. 

If the trade war goes on, everything gets more expensive and these two will be impacted negatively. But these events are always temporary. Trade wars are not good for inflation or the economy with US mid-term elections only 2 years away. He's trusting that rational minds will prevail.

WAIT
CP vs. CNR

CP has more catalysts from the Kansas City merger, and a better growth rate. Both are getting more attractive. If we get the all clear on the economy, both names will be decent entry points. Though optimistic, he's still a bit afraid, and wouldn't step in just yet.