Costco Wholesale CorporationCOSTBUYDec 18, 2025Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Sep 10, 2026. Market Open.
World's third-largest retailer. High traffic, repeat business, superior same-store sales growth in high single digits. Likes the recurring membership fees, with ~92% retention rate. Likes the procurement clout and narrow assortment of goods. Pretty good gross margins of 11%, and ~30% ROE.
Seems to trade at a high multiple, and this scares people. But it's compounded at 17-18% since the IPO in 1985. Any day that ends in "y" is a good day to buy. Yield is 0.64%.
Has traded at a high valuation pretty much since it went public. Good luck trying to pick a perfect valuation entry point. He invests in companies that can invest cashflows at high rates of return over decades. Stealing market share from low- and middle-end grocery stores. Adding services, such as Medicare plans in the US. Same-store sales growth 7-8% a year.
Deserves to trade at a high multiple because of business durability over the long term. Yield is 0.60%.
Both great companies, but both very expensive. COST is over 50x PE, and WMT's in the 40s. Fairly low-margin model. Reliant on the consumer, and everyone's affected when that consumer is struggling.
WMT reported today. Earnings were OK, but projections on future quarters were tough. High fuel prices were highlighted.
They make a lot of money primarily from his wife and mother-in-law, but also from about 80 million other members ;) Likes it, in his momentum mandate. Likes visibility and stickiness of membership revenue. Once people pay the membership, they become loyal shoppers. Pretty robust new-store expansion, even though it's been around for 4 decades. Margins are good and stable. Doing more and more in e-commerce.
Perennial knock against it is the valuation. Always expensive. Any day that ends in "y" is a good day to own, all the better with recent pullback. His firm is long and strong this one.