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Costco Wholesale CorporationCOSTPAST TOP PICKApr 09, 2024Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 16, 2026. Market Open.
Both great companies, but both very expensive. COST is over 50x PE, and WMT's in the 40s. Fairly low-margin model. Reliant on the consumer, and everyone's affected when that consumer is struggling.
WMT reported today. Earnings were OK, but projections on future quarters were tough. High fuel prices were highlighted.
No valuation concerns, as it's been expensive every day he's looked at it over 30 years. Compounded shareholder total return of 17.5% since its IPO. Third-largest retailer in the world. Procurement clout and supply-chain efficiencies produce gross margins of 11%. Still expanding store count. Periodically increases membership fees. Superior same-store sales performance driven by traffic and basket size.
Lots of ways to win. Yield is 0.59%.
A good name to hold in consumer staples when people panic about market volatility, recession, or the like. Defensive plus steady growth. Runup since January, now trending sideways. Business model is what makes it stand out.
Sees ~11-12% upside from here. Of course, that could change. Ranks 10/10 for her.
Shares ran up too far. Their business plan is simple: likely open 30 stores a year given insane demand. They just opened one in Shenzen, China. Are only 870 Costco stores vs. 10,000 Walmarts, so there's room to grow. PE isn't cheap, but 10 years from now you will be happy owning this.