David Dietze
Capital One Financial Corp
COF-N
COMMENT
Mar 21, 2017
You have to start with a top-down analysis. Do you like financials? He can make a great case that financials will be much higher 5-10 years down the road. Remember, this is one sector that has never come back from the peaks that they held before the 2008 subprime crisis, so valuations generally are low. Also, it is one of the few groups that can benefit from higher interest rates. He feels this one has an excellent franchise. They are with the credit cards which is a growing way people pay worldwide. They also have some great individual banks.
It's the 10th-largest US bank, at 8x PE. They expanded from credit cards into banking, and are building a strong brand. They're using technology to drive efficiency, will move to the cloud later this year. The trouble they'll have is that their client base on the retail side is weaker than peers like JP Morgan. COF isn't expensive and have grown impressively. Tech will make them more efficiency and overall COF will perform better post-Covid.
Likes some of the credit card companies. They make sense. Secular push from cash to electronic payments. Likes this name, but watch its auto loans and sub-prime lending. Technically, has performed well since the lows of last year. See his Top Picks.
Their just-released quarter shot the lights out, with great loan growth and defaults well below pre-Covid levels. Shares surged over $9 today. The street expected their credit card business would be plagued by defaults, but those folks were wrong.
The company itself is fine, but the capital/lending cycle concerns him, where bankruptcies will increase and decrease earnings, buybacks and dividends.
With regulation ahead, it's now more likely that their deal with Discover Financial will finally close--it's been taking forever. If so, COF could go up 25 points. No matter what, COF will be fine.
Banks are a winning sector and his favourite here is COF. It just closed a deal with Discovery Financial, which will turn COF's credit card business into a bigger business.
You have to start with a top-down analysis. Do you like financials? He can make a great case that financials will be much higher 5-10 years down the road. Remember, this is one sector that has never come back from the peaks that they held before the 2008 subprime crisis, so valuations generally are low. Also, it is one of the few groups that can benefit from higher interest rates. He feels this one has an excellent franchise. They are with the credit cards which is a growing way people pay worldwide. They also have some great individual banks.