Stockchase Opinions

Vincent Delisle Canadian National R.R. CNR-T BUY Feb 16, 2004

Watch for the strength of the Canadian dollar as well as energy costs. Should continue to go up.
$80.800

Stock price when the opinion was issued

Transportation
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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 03/24, Down 8.9%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O’Reilly

Our PAST TOP PICK with CNR has triggered its stop at $141.  To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time.  

SELL

Small position. Not a great-looking chart. Thinking of selling. A potential candidate to raise cash in his portfolio.

HOLD

Critical piece of the supply chain. Still remains a dominant player in the vast network linking Canada and the US. Rough Q4 from labour strikes and extreme weather. Yield ~3.4%.

Stable, long-term asset, but facing margin headwinds from rising costs and lower productivity. Increased competition from CP-KSU merger.

WAIT
CP vs. CNR

CP has more catalysts from the Kansas City merger, and a better growth rate. Both are getting more attractive. If we get the all clear on the economy, both names will be decent entry points. Though optimistic, he's still a bit afraid, and wouldn't step in just yet.

TOP PICK

It's been a struggle holding this for years. The dividend continues to grow. With more trade, will be more transport by rails which is 300% more efficient than truck. Trades at a cheap 17x PE. Add some now, more later. If we don't trade with the US, we will be shipping to the coasts to export abroad.

(Analysts’ price target is $172.72)
WAIT

Negatively impacted by trade. Economically sensitive. Likes the business. Margins and cashflow are great for the rails. Constructive longer term, once tariff issues get sorted. He prefers CP.

PARTIAL BUY

Is watching it after falling to current levels. The rails track GDP levels. CN boasts a slightly lower PE and higher ROE than CP, but are paying much more in price-to book than CP, but you get more. Overall, it evens out slightly in CP's favour. You can buy some shares now and more if it falls further.

WATCH

Something she's looking at now. Higher yield, lower valuation. Has come up significantly in the past week or two with the market run. If it went back down to $125, she'd definitely be interested. Stable, not easily replicable. Consistent cashflow that supports the dividend. Still the cheapest way to transport goods. Prefers it to CP.

DON'T BUY

He got stopped out, broke support. Can't be all that bullish on it until it returns to above $150.

WEAK BUY

Sold late last year, due to worries partly on tariffs and partly on management's ability to create value. Didn't like that it was buying back stock using debt, or yo-yo projections (up) versus guidance (down). Heavy capex business. Growth hasn't been there with pandemic, tariffs, inflation.

Probably some good value here. If you have a long-term investment horizon, not the worst idea to have a 1-2% position in the Canadian rails and just leave it alone. Doesn't have a strong conviction either way right now on CNR vs. CP.