Opinions
Andy Nasr
Canadian Natural Rsrcs
CNQ-T
COMMENT
Nov 29, 2017
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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If she could make this a Top Pick again, she would. Very high conviction on its future. Premier oil company at a discounted price. One of the best management teams in the world. Premier assets and cost structure. Consistently good acquisitions at a good price that are accretive. Strong record of share buybacks and dividend increases.
Revenues are slightly down YOY, but that's a function of oil prices being down. Likes the 60/40 mix of gas to oil.
Core holding, along with SU and TOU. Of oil & gas, gas is probably the better bet right now with LNG coming onstream. Trump says a lot of things and, on the broken-clock theory, some of it may be accurate. But you can't just turn on the tap.
Considerable underinvestment in oil for a while, particularly in Canada. PM Carney is no particular friend of the sector. If onshoring of all this production comes back to America, they're going to have to power it somehow. And there won't be enough windmills, nuclear plants, or solar panels to do it.
Ottawa for the past 10 years hasn't given much clarity about exploration; the whole industry has been wondering what they can and cannot do. However, in this election, all parties are talking about using our natural resources, refine them here, then export them abroad. We need clarity to buy a stock like this. The dividend is high because they CNQ can't grow, a sit and wait situation where they're dying a slow death. He hopes regulatory clarity comes later this year. CNQ is the biggest and best of the group.
Sold off on concerns about Canada, what if another Liberal gets in, tariffs on energy, and exposure to the WCS differential. His fund has to be more sensitive to short-term moves, so he sold and harvested a decent tax loss. So you could sell and buy, say, CVE.
For most retail investors, it's a name you can just sit on. One of the deepest resource bases, rock-solid management team, yield is 6.1% (extremely sustainable). Usually it's defensive.
About 27% natural gas. Not sure exactly what their breakeven on oil price is, probably ~$52 or so. Oil's come down quite a bit on Saudi moves and global demand issues. Trades at a premium (7x) to peers (5x). Good production profile this year. Cashflow per share growth. Really good balance sheet, as is payout ratio.
If you think oil's going to $70-80, go ahead and buy. He's not so sure about that. Other places are easier to invest.
She'd "top pick" this one forever at these prices. A no-brainer. The premier Canadian oil stock. Rare opportunity to own a premium asset at a discount. Oil price may get weaker as international supply comes on. Still makes $$ with a low commodity price. Good mix between oil and gas.
Best-in-class assets with low decline rate overall of ~11%. Strong culture of maximizing shareholder value through buybacks and dividend increases. Yield is 5.45%, and dividend increases multiple times a year.
He's not bullish oil now (nat gas, yes), so he doesn't own CNQ, though it's run well. CNQ has a deep resource base. The value of the Oil Sands will rise because of its strategic value against the dwindling US shale producers. This is reaching the lows of this cycle. CNQ is more oil than nat gas. Pays a 5.5% dividend yield and strong balance sheet. Are paying down debt.
His outlook for 2018 is that oil and gas prices are going to remain range bound. Would prefer energy infrastructure instead of this company. He wants exposure to companies that are going to benefit from pulling the stuff out of the ground. That includes transporting it, fractionation for gas, logistics. Companies underpinned by “fee for service” or “take or pay” contracts have a lot more visibility and a lot less commodity price exposure. This wouldn’t be his favourite.