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Compton Petroleum (CMT.TO)

DON'T BUY
Has had a quite a run. Has run into a few problems along the line. As it's grown larger, management has not been able to complete some of its tie-ins on time. One of the last intermediates. Reasonably fully priced here.
BUY
Used to own, but sold when it was higher. Getting ready to Buy again. Doesn't think it will become a trust for a couple of years. They have too much growth ahead of them.
BUY
Has had a nice correction. Model price is $14.31 which is a 43% differential. Good price.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Looking pretty expensive. Missed on their last quarter and the stock fell off the top. It is frequently talked of as either a takeover target or an income trust. Net asset value is compelling. Reserves are very good even though their cash flow was lousy. Would sell if it got above $15 and would probably buy more if it dropped below $12.
HOLD
Has an underperform on it. Have a lot of resource plays and a lot of good assets and look to be a takeover candidate. Their outlook is based on a 12 month outlook and from that perspective, they've had a very good run and feels comfortable where they are at. Very large land base and very focused on resource plays. May be a little ahead of themselves.
DON'T BUY
Hasn't been showing any growth. Last year production per share growth was around 4%. People are expecting around 10% this year. Can't go into a trust because of their debt covenents and legal issues.
DON'T BUY
Possible conversion to income trust. Stock price at highest of cycle for short term.
SELL
Has had a nice run, but has had a few problems in meeting its production targets. No visible catalyst in sight for that to change.
DON'T BUY
A previous Top Pick. Ran into some production problems and he became a disenchanted. Recently picked up, had 2 really good quarters and the stock has taken off. Management has become aggressive issuing more shares and raising capital. A little concerned they will go through the same problems getting product tied into the system and into the bottom line.
DON'T BUY
Long term chart has a nice up channel. Two things against it. At the top of an upchannel, and it is January, the best time to sell energy. If you own, take some profits.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 22/04. Up 1%.) Still likes. Doesn't think the natural gas story is over. Very competent management.
HOLD
Has exposure to the gas side. Well managed company. Feels the oil/gas sector has to consolidate for awhile. Look at it in the late spring as a possible sale.
TRADE
Not the cheapest stock anymore. Most companies this size have been turned into income trusts or snapped up by the big guys. A lot of people are betting on this. Well managed.
BUY
All oil stocks are slipping a bit. Possible income trust some day.
SELL
Feels it's overvalued for what it's producing now. Has had troubles meeting its own production targets.
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