Christopher Blumas Cargojet Inc CJT-T DON'T BUY Sep 17, 2019

Good company, but trades aggressively. Right now, chart looks pretty bullish. If it gets through its old resistance level of around $140 from 2022, it will have other levels to try to break through.

Favoring industrial side of economy. Expecting strength through the rest of the year. Trend during from down to up. Expecting a share price of $160. Would recommend buying. 

Better than FedEx, better growth profile. They have a deal with DHL and a deal with China. Good potential here.

Likes the company (good market position), but stock is over valued. Also, capital intensive business - returns are not great. 

The street targets 27% upside, though CJT has never met the street's target. Earnings tripled in the past year, though. Interest rate cuts really helped it. but the CEO warns that geopolitical uncertainty is effecting the entire transportation industry and CJT is not impervious to serious cost increases. Scores 6/10 fundamentally. 

CJT was under tremendous pressure in FY2023 as the industry experienced a cyclical downturn while CJT invested heavily in capital expenditures. CJT’s profitability and cash flow were significantly affected in FY2023, which was reflected in its share price. That being said, the company has started to show signs of a turnaround as CJT downsized its capex investment, sold off assets to pay down debt, and aggressively repurchased shares. Given what CJT’s management has done, we think CJT could be a solid turnaround candidate, and the company’s prospects are better now than ever before. CJT is expected to grow its topline by around 6% over the next few years. We would be comfortable holding CJT here or adding some as the company continues to execute.
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Fast grower, expanding fleet. Market got concerned about impact of that on balance sheet. Cost discipline is driving free cashflow and buybacks. Valuation lower than peers. Business moat. Balance sheet is fine. Trades at 20x for a 14% growth rate, so not a slam-dunk on price to growth. Own some here.

The Chairman of CJT was appointed to the Order of Canada, but there has been no company news. The stock is down 14% YTD. Growth has slowed a bit but a decent recovery is expected in 2025. It is economically sensitive, and the economy needs to comply here. It is small and a bit leveraged, which adds to risks. At 21X earnings we would consider it OK, but not hugely compelling right now. 
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It had a big downtrend from late 2021 to late 2023. Like the rails, this has come off sharply of late. There's likely more downside coming. If the stock breaks above the August low around $115, you can add more. Now, we'll likely see a bounce to that $115 resistance, but doubt this will rise above that. 

He just trimmed target due to additional capex. EBITDA up 10%, nice. He is worried about tariffs on this name. Always trades a bit pricey. Expects 11% EPS growth, trades at 19.5x. Could probably get cheaper, but good grower over time.

If you think tariffs will go away, good technical level to start nibbling at.