Opinions
Bill Carrigan
Coastal Energy
CEN-T
DON'T BUY
Oct 02, 2013
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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(A Top Pick Sept 29/11. Up 52.81%.) This is an offshore Thailand play. Pretty much light oil. Growth has been astounding. Have a very large land base. There is still a lot of room for development as well as exploration. Expects about 50% volume growth next year. Company has a lot of cash. Still a Buy.
This is one of his top international ideas. Generates significant free cash flow. Producing about 25,000 barrels a day from onshore and offshore assets in Thailand. It is really the offshore development that has driven the tremendous amount of growth. Considerable exploration upside from here.
In this environment, stocks that don’t have growth will probably be range bound. She tends to favour stocks that can show a good growth profile and this is one. Located in Thailand. Most production comes from off shore. Doubled their production from last year and are able to generate another 30%-40% of organic growth next year. Very clean balance sheet. Lots of cash and are able to generate about 10% of free cash flow. Own huge land acreage offshore Thailand. She can see a $30 handle presuming they can continue to execute.
Thailand-based producer of onshore and offshore oil. Producing about 20,000-25,000 barrels a day so are generating excellent cash flows because they get Brent pricing. About a year ago, a Thailand-based company was interested in them and recently there are rumours that a Hong Kong-based company is also interested. They are looking at a price of around $21 but he thinks the assets are worth $21-$25.
Something about the chart bothers him. It shows an advance from early 2010 until early this year. This was followed by a lower high. He likes to see higher lows and because he doesn’t see any, this tells him that somebody is worried about something. This has to climb back above its trend line.