Stockchase Opinions

Stuart HinshelwoodCaterpillarCATDON'T BUYNov 01, 2013

Good, maybe great company but in a really tough space. Had a big miss in earnings. Top line is down significantly on a year-over-year basis. He would be more comfortable with this if it got down into the $75 range. Has a big negative overhang from mining but the bigger problem is that they don’t make these machines overnight so there is a longer lead time and they have a lot of inventory built up in the channel. Have to work through that, then work through new sales. Emerging markets are under pressure for them.

$83.59

Stock price when the opinion was issued

$904.28

As of Jun 05, 2026. Market Open.

machinery
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PARTIAL SELL

He trimmed it. Trading at a 32x forward PE, but typically in the mid-teens. As long as data centres are being built, this will participate, but it doesn't hurt to take some money off the table.

COMMENT

They host an HQ visit for investors on Monday. Their construction division is essential to the data centre build. It trades at 36x PE like a tech stock. He likes it, but it's overheated. Does it merit the premium?

BUY

Driven by tailwinds in oil/gas, infrastructure and the data centre build.

BUY

Has seen many upgrades. Their earnings were out of control. They have $60 billion in backlog orders, and revenues up over 20%. Loves it.

SELL ON STRENGTH

Since he bought it last May 25, it's up 140%. Insane. He is taking profits. It's overvalued here. It's not just a data centre story.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Lots of uncertainty in Canada around infrastructure and energy. Much less uncertainty in the US on the infrastructure buildout. More of an actual HALO.

BUY

It enjoys demand for building infrastructure and data centres.

BUY

Is a direct play on global infrastructure and energy demand.

HOLD

Still owns, and won't sell. CAT was overvalued a month ago, but expects it to grow into its valuation. It won't be a 10-year hold for him.

BUY

The CEO will do a fireside chat at ConExpo. He may talk about data centres are using CAT generators for power. He kicks himself for not buying this sooner.

WEAK BUY

A name to look at in the infrastructure space.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Equipment dealers are a great place to be -- pass through inflation very well, good plays on mining and global growth. TIH and FTT have the same type of chart, but not so much with WJX.

Technically, over its skis. So don't buy here. But the theme has legs for the next 3-5 years. FTT is a better deal (but at a lower level as well).

BUY

CAT isn't open AI, but they are part of the AI tool belt. The PE is uncomfortable now, but also at $100 lower.

BUY
CAT vs. Deere

He owns neither. CAT has down really well. Both benefit as agriculture recovers. 

TOP PICK

All 3 of the Top Picks today involve taking a bit of money away from the infrastructure plays.

This name plus WMT have been using AI the most and for the longest. Has autonomous and semi-autonomous machines. For those machines that have drivers, they just launched a CAT-AI system -- like having a friend and a coach in the cab. AI is being used for predicting and for supply chains.

His 12-month price target is $750. Buy 1/3 here, another ~$645, and the final 1/3 ~$605. Yield is 0.89%.

(Analysts’ price target is $668.77)