Rick RuleB2Gold Corp.BTO.TOBUYMay 07, 2013

(Note the shortish timeframe.)  Sold recently, and moved the $$ into ABX. Goose production (though having some issues) will replace Mali's and remove some geopolitical risk. 

Likes the price. It's been punished because of political risk at the mine in Mali. The CEO went immediately to Mali and solved the problem quietly. Big news is Canadian operation -- behind schedule and well over budget, but resolving those issues should make for performance similar to EQX. Very high conviction on stock re-rating once this sorts itself out.

The building team is remarkably successful. Very-high-quality company and management. Lots of market skepticism on management team and global aspirations. Yield is 1.76%.

New mine took longer and cost more, so it's underperformed the group (trading ~20-30% discount, and should re-rate). It'll be quite an important project once it gets up to full steam in 2027. Adds nice geographical diversification. Significant FCF should result. Yield is just over 1.5%.

On his radar. Will probably add once he sees the steady state after Goose mine ramps up.

It has made a big recovery along with the sector, and is now up 66% YTD. It remains very cheap at 7X earnings with a 1.97% dividend. The balance sheet is solid. Very good earnings growth is expected this year, but is expected to flatline (based on consensus) next year. Cash flow is good, but the last quarter was a bit mixed. All in, it has improved fundamentally, and investors are looking at it again. It is priced well, but would still not be amongst our favorites in the sector. 
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Gold should at least maintain these levels due to central bank buying. Underappreciated by the market, as everyone was worried about geopolitical risk. Growth is coming on in less risky areas, including in Canada. Discount to NAV. Good operators. Yield is 2.28%.

Longtime shareholder and friend of founder/CEO. Behind schedule and over budget on mine in northern Canada. Very remote location, logistically challenged. If that can get resolved, expects stock to be much higher. Stock's extremely cheap from a sum-of-the-parts point of view, but there is completion risk (which, ironically, you can't quantify until you complete the project). Market has overstated that risk. 

Rest of company's in fairly good shape. Punished because main asset is in Mali, lots of political turmoil.

He owns about 50% gold, but the seniors. This is a junior. There could be a catchup trade. But he wouldn't buy this one until it breaks out.

This and Barrick have an overhang regarding Mali. He expects a 10% correction in both names coming. Technically, they look weak, The chart shows a bigger downtrend.

Two problems with the stock. A construction project is over budget and behind. Plus, most of free cashflow comes from a wonderful mine in unstable and dangerous Mali. His average cost is much lower than currently trading.

This name is further down the food chain. Take a look at the more interesting mid-size players. Still, he's been lightening up on gold. With a strong USD, and interest rates possibly being higher, gold may take a few steps back. So he's waiting to see how things shake out.

Its Capex is exceeding its cash flow but there is no net debt and the dividend is secure. In general the cost of producing an ounce of gold is way up over the last 20 years. The strong U.S. dollar has put downward pressure on gold.

Doesn't fall company closely. Gold prices very strong (all time high), but company hasn't moved upwards with strong gold prices. Risky company with shaky assets. Better options available for gold investors in royalty companies. 

The 4% dividend is sustainable. Can grow around 10%. Is highly diversified. The next leg of growth comes from their Sabina asset. Not a large cap gold stock, but will see far better upside, leveraged to the gold price. Is some execution risk in their northern Canada project (due to extreme weather). Are fully financed and the balance sheet is solid.

Most gold stocks looked good till recently. Support broken. Probably oversold, so may have a bounce. Not today, but maybe soon. The old support level has to be broken before you can get bullish on it. A trade, not an investment.

Weakness in share price not a reflection of rising gold prices. Stock trading a multi-decade low. Cost issues, and inflation a challenge for the business. Current valuation presenting a buying opportunity. When gold stocks begin to rally, it will be initiated by a series of interest rate cuts by US Fed. Good time to buy.