Stock price when the opinion was issued
Longtime shareholder and friend of founder/CEO. Behind schedule and over budget on mine in northern Canada. Very remote location, logistically challenged. If that can get resolved, expects stock to be much higher. Stock's extremely cheap from a sum-of-the-parts point of view, but there is completion risk (which, ironically, you can't quantify until you complete the project). Market has overstated that risk.
Rest of company's in fairly good shape. Punished because main asset is in Mali, lots of political turmoil.
It has made a big recovery along with the sector, and is now up 66% YTD. It remains very cheap at 7X earnings with a 1.97% dividend. The balance sheet is solid. Very good earnings growth is expected this year, but is expected to flatline (based on consensus) next year. Cash flow is good, but the last quarter was a bit mixed. All in, it has improved fundamentally, and investors are looking at it again. It is priced well, but would still not be amongst our favorites in the sector.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
New mine took longer and cost more, so it's underperformed the group (trading ~20-30% discount, and should re-rate). It'll be quite an important project once it gets up to full steam in 2027. Adds nice geographical diversification. Significant FCF should result. Yield is just over 1.5%.
On his radar. Will probably add once he sees the steady state after Goose mine ramps up.