Stockchase Opinions

Blair Wilson Bonavista Energy Corp BNP-T BUY Jan 18, 2005

A top pick in the oil/gas royalty trust sector. Made a significant acquisition that adds to their reserve life.
$28.480

Stock price when the opinion was issued

oil gas
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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 03/18, Down 4%) Pays a dividend. Focused on paying down debt and keeping volumes down. If they pay down debt this year, then in 2020 they can start growing the company. Trading cheaply.
TOP PICK
Natural gas pick. Likes the company. Cheap here. Paying down debt in 2019. $3.50 target in next year or two is reasonable. Balance sheet's improving. Yield is 3.48%. (Analysts’ price target is $1.45)
DON'T BUY
There is not reason to own this stock. There are so many other better quality companies out there.
SELL

From a trading perspective you can take a shot and buy it. But you want to flip it. It is not as cheap for the risk. Balance sheet is heavy with net debt over cash flow is 5.3 (you don't want to be over 3) They have bigger problems. Tough one. The Management has skin in the game but their balance sheet problems are very big.

COMMENT
BNP and BXE Both are carrying high levels of debt. BNP-T has been paying down debt and will try to keep production flat. He intends to buy more of both. BXE-T will be doing a 12:1 reverse split on the shares sometime in June.
DON'T BUY
Why buy a highly levered nat gas stock that may have contravened debt covenants? You're not being paid for that level or risk. There's no reason to own this.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 16/18, Down 70%) Good cash flow, using excess to pay down debt. It will survive. They're a beneficiary of apportionment. Will benefit from better nat gas prices.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
A lot of these companies are no longer in the TSX. The stock is very cheap. It is a problem candidate on the tax losing scene.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 28/19, Down 58%) The market is concerned about their balance sheet. He still likes the cash flow outlook as it trades below 1 times cash flow. They are 30% liquids. They have a new large shareholder who holds 15% of the outstanding shares.
SELL
What to do with the Bonavista debt deal? https://globalnews.ca/news/7088006/bonavista-energy-calgary-company/ A sad ending to a good company with fine assets and managers. Problem was that their debt was maturing in November 2020 and debt holders refused to extend that debt two-three years. BNP also couldn't get debt relief from EDC or BDC. For shareholders, it's a tough choice now. You have three options: 1) you can wait for the 5 cents after shareholders vote in July, 2) sell in the open market now at 7.5 cents, or 3) own a part of this as a private company with no liquidity or trading value until there's an exit strategy 3-4 years later. He will sell (option 2).