Bankers Petroleum (BNK.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Bankers Petroleum (BNK.TO)

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COMMENT

A couple of key catalysts coming for this story in the next while. He will understand better if a thermal pilot is going to work on certain elements of the reservoir in Albania. This could move a lot of the contingent resource into their 2P (proof + probable) number. Targeting 30% growth in production and cash flow numbers. At some point it will be acquired by an international company. You will have to be patient.

DON'T BUY

It should have bumped up. He just bought LUN-T. BNK in Albania dissuades him from buying it.

BUY

Focused in Albania. Created a lot of value by discovering resources and implementing new technology. Continue to grow reserves but production growth has not kept up, which creates a lot of doubt as to whether the reserves are real. Just need to bring reserves into production and he thinks they will. 2012 will be key to their operations.

PAST TOP PICK

(Top Pick Feb 9/11, Down 39.08%) rebuilding confidence in the management team. Will report year end reserves on Feb 13 and he thinks it will be a pretty good result. Still decent upside. But there are better names to get into.

WAIT

Distinct downward trend last year and seasonality did not appear. But we have seen the bottom already and some good base building. It is getting lined up very nicely. If you get above $5.30 it will confirm an upward trend. You still have time for this trade. This is the time of year when we have a lot of exploration in Northern Canada so it is an excellent time to own this sector. Third week in Jan to second week in June.

COMMENT

Heavy oil player in Albania. Some concern about European financial crisis but so far has had no impact. Have done very well in taking old fields and applying new technology. Road has been a little bit bumpy in the last couple of quarters because of how well horizontal wells have been performing but they continue to execute in adding reserves and production. Long-term it could easily trade at double the price.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Dec 7/10. Down 21.77%.)

PAST TOP PICK

(Top Short Dec 21/10. Up 44.48%.) Pairs trade. - Long Sea Dragon (SDX-X) and Short Bankers Petroleum (BNK-T). Has shrunk his position. On any kind of bounce would probably Short more.

HOLD

Disappointing performer this year but believes in the long term potential of their Albanian oilfield, which is the largest onshore oilfield in Europe. Management has put out unrealistic guidance several times so there is a bit of a credibility problem.

HOLD

Struggles with this one. Disappointed in management in that they guided poorly. The main issue is that they have not met their production guidance for probably over 3 quarters now. Cheap. Trading at 80% of their proved reserve value.

DON'T BUY

Broke down below its trend line earlier this year. A falling knife. Currently in a major down trend. Can't see any support.

COMMENT

Exposure to 6 billion barrels of heavy oil in Albania. Using Canadian technologies and applying it to old fields. Have had operational hiccups over the last couple of years. This is a volatile stock that can be used as a trading vehicle. Thinks the value will be realized eventually.

HOLD

Sold off with the market. Is in Albania. Heaviish oil. It is a good company so you don’t have to sell it off.

PAST TOP PICK

(Top Pick Jun 10/10, Up 5.39%) returns were pretty awful. Short interest in stock has grown, which is peculiar to him. Brent us up about $30 and yet the stock is flat. People are selling it or shorting it as a hedge against oil going down. Still views the stock as a good upside.

DON'T BUY

Expects this will tread water for awhile because of all the geopolitical risks. Their land are the old Russian fields in Albania that they are reviving. High risk area.

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