Biogen IDEC Inc. (BIIB)

(Top Pick Mar 10/15, Down 36.01%) He got stopped out last March. They missed a number. He is not buying biotech right now.

Has been watching this for a little while. It doesn’t trade at an extreme valuation and they have a nice pipeline. A drug that propelled them recently was their new Alzheimer’s one that is still in testing. A very promising drug. In a short time they are going to come out with the results of a new test on it. He thinks the market will react on this, so he would be hesitant to buy in front of that. If you can buy this in the $350-$375 area, it has a lot of promise.

This is in the right space to him. It is in a sector that he thinks is going to change humanity in a way the PC changed things in 1982, the way the baby boomers did it coming back from the war, or the 2^nd Industrial Revolution. These are large secular pictures that really moved society. They happen in such a way that you actually don’t see the occurrences while you’re in them. If you don’t want to look at this one in particular, you can look at any of the biotech related ETF’s. He doesn’t own any of these, but is waiting with bated breath for an opportunity to do that.

You have an aging population in the US that is relatively insensitive to price. Last year pharmaceutical prices rose 13%. This company has the dominant market share position in neurological drugs for things such as multiple sclerosis and Alzheimer’s. They have some very important trials in March on Alzheimer’s, which are potentially blockbuster findings. They may either slow down the onset or, more importantly, actually show some reversing. As the Affordable Care act comes in, there are more people that have money to spend on healthcare. In the next couple of years there are lots of additional trials that will come.

The period of seasonal strength comes predominately during the summertime, from August through until October. The average gain from July through to October is about 30% on an annual basis. The strongest month is July, so if you can take a position before July, it will give you added value. Currently this is trying to find a bottom. It is bouncing off of oversold levels. Doesn’t expect you would find the bottom at this point. Wait until the summer.

(Market Call Minute.) Closed at $283.67 and his model price is $180, a 36% negative. Too expensive here.