Kyle McKayBHP BillitonBHPBUYMar 19, 2007

Will be the largest producer of copper in the world this year. Iron ore is still an important part of the business -- owns the mines, rails to transport, and ships to deliver to markets. Very well hedged against inflation.

54% of earnings came from copper in fiscal 2026, margin is 70%. Could be a deficit of copper over next decade. Demand growing ~6% a year. Cashflow is exceedingly strong, up ~80% YOY. Dividend, multiple, and cashflow will all grow. Runway of 8-10 years.

Analyst price target looks low because they don't have a lot of confidence after 15 years of a bear market. Don't be afraid of a stock making new highs after 15 years. Yield is 4.13%.

All commodity companies have run up on the back of the Iran conflict. He'd look to add some copper exposure via this name, but now.

Likes it long term. His team didn't trim this one, only because their clients had capital gains from so many other winning positions. Great name, best of breed. Buy only a 1/2 position at these levels.

He likes cash-generating resource producers -- great as inflation protection. Largest producer of iron ore on the planet, with ~45% of revenues coming from that. Adding copper production (up 28% over last 3 years), which is now 44% of revenue. 

Fully integrated from production to rail shipments, which diversifies its business. Yield is 3.20%.

It is one of the world's largest diversified mining companies. Iron ore, copper and metallurgical coal are its main products. Global demand for copper is expected to increase 70% by 2050. Revenue is about $55 billion US. Iron ore adds more scale, resilience and cash flow stability. Also in China there is stabilization in the markets. It has broken above its key long term resistance levels so there is technical strength, Pays a 4% dividend.
Buy 2 Hold 5 Sell 1

Best asset in Australia.

Australian-based, one of the largest global mining companies in the world. A play on copper and iron ore for steel -- essential for infrastructure buildout, electrification, and energy transition. Long-term secular themes. 

We've gone from the AI build up, to the build out. We need data centres and grid stability. China wants to improve infrastructure and electricity grid, and is one of the largest sources of revenue for BHP. Stock's now broken above multi-year highs. Yield is 3.22%.

Great, diversified commodities producer. Great dividend grower over time. In base metals, he owns HBM (the leader) and FOM and RIO. Keep in mind that BHP has a very large iron ore business, which is probably a bit of a drag. In the short run, lagging a bit. He'd prefer RIO.

Best of breed. He adds more below $50 and trims over $70. Commodities demand looks weak. There's a disconnect between precious metals and industrial metals. The chart is spiky, so you can make good money.

Best of breed. He adds more below $50 and trims over $70. Commodities demand looks weak. There's a disconnect between precious metals and industrial metals. The chart is spiky, so you can make good money.

The largest miner today, in iron ore and copper. Mining is risky; it takes a long time to see if whatever you dig out of the ground will sell. He likes BHP's diversification. Iron ore is in safer countries, copper not, so BHP is attractive in this way. There remains good demand for copper. Trades at 12-13x PE and nice balance sheet. but a little risky.

The commodity price and tariffs happened. He sold half his position at $70 a few years ago. He will double his position at $40. Wouldn't sell it here.

Likes metals and mining longer term, if we have the broader 4-year cycle reset. With inflation expectations and supply chains breaking down, likes commodities. Looks like a pretty good longer-term entry point, and you can pick away some more during a bigger correction (perhaps later this year).

Is down 6% the past month due to China. Until China's stimulus plan has an effect on their economy, mining stocks like this will stay under pressure.

In basic materials, iron ore's had a hard time partly due to slowdown in China. And that's a big part of its business. Longer term, we're in early stages of a long-term bull market in commodity prices. Big cashflow generators will pay a lot of dividends along the way. Mixed economic data before an easing cycle impacts this company.

He prefers copper. Owns TECK.B, a bit frustrating, but he can see the runway.