Stock price when the opinion was issued
Now they moved into more water and they still have juices. He thinks they will try to exit that part of the business. It ran up to close to $22 and now it seems to go down every single day. He thinks there is a seller out there. They made acquisitions with debt. It is not at a high multiple so he might take a look at it. It looks interesting at these prices.
(Top Pick Sep 8/16, Down 23.43%) Operationally nothing has gone wrong and they keep executing. There has been general pressure on consumer staples stocks. This is a company with high debt. He thought they would pay down debt over time. They are not financially distressed and nothing has changed operationally.
No longer just a soda manufacturer. They’ve gotten heavy into the coffee and water delivery business around offices, homes and shops. A high free cash flow business, and they’ve been able to roll up that sector, both in Canada and Europe, on very, very cheap multiples. They’ve put a lot of debt on the balance sheet. While they are generating a lot of free cash flow, it seems the narrative has changed over the last few months. Part of it has to do with the British pound decline. There is a question as to how long they are going to be able to service their debt properly and how long will it take. Sold his holdings, but may look to enter again once they de-lever the business a little.
Has owned this in the past. He likes the turnaround that management has made. They were in contract manufacturing of a private label pop business and discovered it was not the best business for them, so started to transition away. Now into home delivery water and office delivery water and coffee. Not the highest margin business, but if they continue to make acquisitions, it will continue to grow. He is surprised the stock sold off as much is it has, and is in the process of looking at this.
Beginning in May, he started getting rid of a lot of his defensive positions. The chart shows a little weakness in June. He would be selective in this space. If you own it, you’ve had a nice little gain and maybe you should take a little bit off the table. He doesn’t expect a full selloff. This has excellent support at around $16.50.
It is going through a dynamic process. They sold the bottling division and are focusing on coffee, water and tea. There has been a lot of consolidation in those businesses. Their debt is going down. The strategy shift is exactly what they needed to do. Don’t rush, but as the balance sheet improves they will do better.
This is going to be part of consumers staples, and as a general rule is not a place you want to be. Chart shows a little peak in early December, but the stock is really sideways. If it is going to become a Buy or find its legs, it could go down to $16 and still be quite positive. There would probably be some buyers coming in at around $18. You would be a bit concerned at around $20.61 and the next one would be at around $20.12. This would tell you that you are going to have a visit down to $18, and then possibly the $16 level. Not a fantastic place to be, but you could have outliers that make it a good Buy at any price.
(Top Pick Nov 9/16, Down 18.86%) Has been under pressure by quant funds. He still owns it. He is going to continue to own it.