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Alibaba Group HoldingBABADON'T BUYOct 08, 2014Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 16, 2026. Market Open.
E-commerce and cloud computing (the most nascent piece). E-commerce is under a lot of strain. AI large-language models are compelling in Chinese market, but that entire market is very competitive and ripe for disruptors. A trading stock over the next 2-3 years. Not a buy-and-hold. Tactically a buy today, but be very careful.
Like Amazon, they dominate key secular growth areas in e-commerce, are in cloud computer though trade at only one third of Amazon's PE. Is a modest grower, but has a huge margin of safety. There's so much pessimism about tariffs now. Wait and see, but would be an opportunity if the tariffs are more bark than bite.
Short answer is yes, he likes it. He was selling into strength a few months ago. Now he's looking to reload. On a 5-year chart, you can see the massive bottoming pattern. Won't see numbers like the previous highs again. Probably worth $125-150 over the next few years, if they can stimulate the consumer and the consumer responds.
Chinese consumers have tons of savings, so the potential is there. Buy on pullbacks. One of the best value retail names out there. But you have to be OK with China exposure.
The vast majority of IPOs are down in value a year later. This one could prove to be the exception. It has been growing by leaps and bounds. The growth has slowed, but is still absolutely huge. Thinks that about 50% of the people in China still do not have the Internet. They are going to get hooked up over time. This company is going to start doing more globally in the US. If the markets get hit, this one could come down a long ways. He wouldn’t be buying into this.