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Alibaba Group HoldingBABACOMMENTSep 17, 2014Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 16, 2026. Market Open.
E-commerce and cloud computing (the most nascent piece). E-commerce is under a lot of strain. AI large-language models are compelling in Chinese market, but that entire market is very competitive and ripe for disruptors. A trading stock over the next 2-3 years. Not a buy-and-hold. Tactically a buy today, but be very careful.
Like Amazon, they dominate key secular growth areas in e-commerce, are in cloud computer though trade at only one third of Amazon's PE. Is a modest grower, but has a huge margin of safety. There's so much pessimism about tariffs now. Wait and see, but would be an opportunity if the tariffs are more bark than bite.
Short answer is yes, he likes it. He was selling into strength a few months ago. Now he's looking to reload. On a 5-year chart, you can see the massive bottoming pattern. Won't see numbers like the previous highs again. Probably worth $125-150 over the next few years, if they can stimulate the consumer and the consumer responds.
Chinese consumers have tons of savings, so the potential is there. Buy on pullbacks. One of the best value retail names out there. But you have to be OK with China exposure.
Alibaba IPO. Rumour is that this will open in the $60-$70 range. He tried, but couldn’t figure out the fundamental value of this. He has it coming with a valuation of EBV+7, which is very, very expensive. Until he gets a final balance sheet, and one or two quarters down the road, he is taking a wide step away from this. He has been playing this through Yahoo (YH00-Q). He would buy Yahoo instead.