Boeing (BA)

He started a position earlier this month. He avoided it for a long time, but this year he wanted it to take advantage of Trump's trade war. Also, the CEO is doing a good job. He entered after the big pullback earlier this month. Buy some, then wait till it touches $200. Reasons: only 2 companies build at scale commercial jets in the world such as Japan ordering 100 Boeing jets. Making more planes will boost their cash flow. The CEO has cleaned up the messy balance sheet; has sold parts of the operation to pay off debt.

They report this weak. He expects a good report. Buy if this falls to $220.

They just announced huge Q2 deliveries. He sees this flying much higher.

Too much reputational damage. Reputations are easily lost. Before the Max 737, Boeing had a spotless record.

He hopes their troubles are behind them but as an equity investor is not sure if he sees the light at the end of the tunnel yet. There are only three companies in the world that make planes and global travel is growing. It has some logistics issues and has received some significant slaps on the wrist by the transportation board. There is a lot of debt but the order book is pretty filled up. He thinks there has been some change in management.

They had a last good quarter; it was the first time their commercial aircraft margins were up 290 basis points YOY and has 7 years' worth of a backlog. Things--and the culture--are changing.

He just bought it. He sees a return to normalization for Boeing in a nice turnaround after getting nothing right for a while.

Reputation has fallen on 737 MAX troubles, including management mishandling. Not the Boeing of 20-30 years ago. Cashflow issues. With current state of the world, have to question how firm its international business is.

The CFO recently made comments: the troubled 737 is closer to resuming production, as the 787 could increase production later this year. Really, the 737 is more important. Also, their ailing defence business is starting to stabilize and recover, though their commercial business could improve. Maybe cash flow will improve; there are signs it is already. They won't be hit by tariffs, because 80-90% of their supply chain is in the US. They have a half-trillion-dollar backlog Last Friday, the US Air Force awarded Boeing the contract for fighter jets. He'd like to see a few good quarters of stronger results, and it's early in this turnaround though it's getting its act together. Also, Boeing enjoys little competition and airplane demand is strong.

LMT has definitely done better over the last couple of years. BA is a bit of a recovery play here. In general, where we are in the cycle, he thinks we're in phase 2 but on the cusp of phase 3. Phase 2 is typically where materials, industrials, and technology continue to do well. 

These names should do OK, but we are approaching the end of the cycle. Ultimately, at some point, we'll see rotation out of these industrial plays.

Not a bad sign. On a 5-year chart, you can see somewhat of a floor in the low $120s. It's bounced off that. Is there potential? Yes, that bounce plus positive divergence gives you potential to perhaps reach the top of that trading range (+/- $240). 

It can do well in 2025 if the CEO executes. He hasn't bought it though. Shares have bottomed.

Aviation is attractive because of structural demand and the industry structure. Only a couple of players in an essential industry. In any other industry, would be bankrupt. From the outside, can't know if it's fixed. Don't consider.