BoeingBASTRONG BUYSep 30, 2020Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 04, 2026. Market Open.
Probably two different animals in terms of exposures. Which one you prefer depends on what you're looking for.
BA is coming off a very difficult time in terms of culture -- relationship with FAA, turnaround, planes grounded. Tough road, but hopefully coming off the bottom. Growing ~14%. Recently announced increase in production levels. This may improve FCF.
LMT growing at a slower rate of 5%. Much more exposure to defense. Robust spending on defense around the world.
Boeing continues to recover from its problems of a few years back, and is winning orders again. The stock is up 31% in the past year. Net debt is still very very high (27x cash flow) but EPS is expected to rise 10-fold into 2027, after seven straight years of losses. The sector rally has helped sentiment here for sure. The stock is now very expensive on valuation. The analysts favour it more than before, certainly, but it would still not make their top five in the defense/aerospace sector. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
On technicals, 200-day MA is slowly trending higher and that's positive. Stock price is above that, which is also positive. Not usually a name for his portfolios, based on its products -- they can be very volatile due to global issues and product controls. Economy can affect deliveries.
Combo of aerospace and defense. In that space, he'd veer more toward pure defense.
He bought more Boeing. The company has gone through horrific years, with bad news after bad news. But they are turning the page by taking advantage of the defence and aerospace stories. They aren't going crazy with deliveries but are ramping it. They are worried about efficiency and safety, which is really important. Good profit margins.
Ups and downs over the years. OK right now and looks fairly resilient. Trending upward, so far so good. Holding above $200-210 support. You have to play the trend on this one. (Years ago, he got back in thinking all troubles were behind it, and he woke up one morning to find one of the doors had fallen off.)
He started a position earlier this month. He avoided it for a long time, but this year he wanted it to take advantage of Trump's trade war. Also, the CEO is doing a good job. He entered after the big pullback earlier this month. Buy some, then wait till it touches $200. Reasons: only 2 companies build at scale commercial jets in the world such as Japan ordering 100 Boeing jets. Making more planes will boost their cash flow. The CEO has cleaned up the messy balance sheet; has sold parts of the operation to pay off debt.
More research: https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/odds-catching-covid-19-flight-wellness-scn/index.html The airlines always get bailed out, because too many jobs across American rely on these airlines. This is a tailwind. Today, the FAA was pleased with the test flight of the troubled 737 Max. If it flies again, this will be a game-changer. He can't believe it, but he recommends Boeing. Secondly: Yes, science says it is safe to fly. Consider that during pandemic through August, 1.3 billion have flown on 19 million flights--and there have been 19 documented cases of Covid on planes and airports. Only 19. Even if this number is 100 times bigger, flying is still safer than we think. This means it's much safer to fly than we think, based on the planes' air circulation system which prevents the spread of the virus, safer than office buildings. Also, the 15-minute Abbott Labs Covid test will be a game-changer and spur air travel. Buy Boeing now before it rises. It's the most hated stock he's ever seen, so buy it. Air travel always recover, but it takes time.