Opinions Eric Nuttall
Athabasca Oil Sands CorpATH.TOHOLDJan 09, 2013
Eric NuttallStock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 05, 2026. Market Open.
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Thinks it's a double from here (not a 1-year target). Meaningful compounding of share buybacks over time. Roughly 35% upside next year at $80 oil.
Despite the runup, long-term upside warrants being exposed today, as long as you can ride with the volatility.
Eric Nuttall
What do you want to own today? Canada. Oil. Asset duration. Free cashflow. Share buybacks. This name checks off every single box. Still sees over 100% upside long term at $80 oil in this name, so he's trying to sit on his hands and not sell.
He'd have made it a Top Pick again today if he were allowed.
Eric NuttallThe high is around $8. It just broke above recent highs in the consolidation zone. Pretty important technical resistance is around $7. Likes it here, and doesn't mind buying at these levels. Positive, long-term trend on the 5-year chart.
Awesome chart, especially given how choppy crude's been. Crude picking up would be an additional tailwind.
In a post-shale world, Canada will receive a lot of fund flows. He took advantage of the Venezuelan selloff to increase his position weight in this name.
Eric NuttallA long-term hold. He's going to do his best to sit on his hands and never sell a share, as he sees meaningful upside over time. Ramping up current production, looking to start a new project. Once those both get going, has 40 years of stay-flat inventory (phenomenal).
Eric Nuttall
Massively buying back stock. Roughly 70+ years of stay-flat inventory. Plus, has probably benefited from sellers of MEG looking for a similar name. Bit of a premium valuation at 8.2x forward cashflow. Sees meaningful long-term upside, especially with his prediction for $80 oil.
Eric NuttallIs benefiting from weakness in American shale. The Oil Sands have been overlooked for a long while; the Oil Sands have supply unlike much of the world which is and will face oil supply shortages. ATH has no debt. They will have over 50 years of stay-flat inventory. Have low or no growth, but will buy back as much as stock free cash flow allows. There is a take-put premium in the current share price. At $70 oil, this will trade at 11% free cash flow yield. He sees $80 oil in a year or more, but not for the next 9 months at least. Great managers.
Eric Nuttall
No debt. Roughly $134M net cash. Business model is defendable down to $50 oil. Purish-play, oil sands name. Very clean story. Modest growth, 50+ years of stay-flat inventory. Residual free cashflow dollars are being used to buy back shares. In March alone, bought back 2% of shares outstanding. Management team is underestimated, has done a fantastic job. Gives you exposure to better days ahead for oil. No dividend.
(Analysts’ price target is $6.19)Eric Nuttall
Rebounded slightly off of its lows. Have been long on promise and short on delivery on a few things, which have largely been out of their control. Have an agreement with Petro China that was to be exercised by year end but was caught up by an aboriginal issue. Could take as long as April to clear. This will bring in $1.2-$1.3 billion. Also trying to negotiate a joint venture on some of their oil sands properties. Rumoured it is with the Kuwaiti government which has been in turmoil. Have been able to ramp up their light oil division and producing over 10,000 barrels a day. A lot of value but it is going to take a little bit of time.