ASML Holding (ASML)

Surprised when it lowered guidance, order book was way down, and the stock rolled over by 15% just like that. He didn't sell, as it's still a leader in lithography. The memory side of the business is very cyclical, though the AI side was very robust. What he did, though, was get rid of some of his memory chip stocks.

The company also talked about how China has built out facilities for memory chips. So, another supply of memory chips that will influence the cyclicality.

He just re-bought it. Shares are rallying today because analysts raised earnings expectations. He continues to expect at the end of this year and into next increasing orders for their EUV, a large $250 device that can cram as many advanced features on a chip as possible. Also, the valuation of ASML has fallen to an attractive though not cheap level at 25x PE, no longer 40x.

Loves it. 12-month price target of $1160. Pulled back, but that's similar to the SOXX ETF. Very skewed to China with about 1/3 of its business there. He took some profits and put them into CAJPY.

He sold it in July, but likes it alot for its AI business. They make a machine that allows end-users to put more on a chip, but the machine costs $350 million.  The stock is now cheap (it's fallen a lot and today suffered a downgrade), but consider its end markets--can customers like Intel afford their machine? There's room for the semi stocks to fall further.

Neutral on this name. Business has a monopoly, but problems with major customer (Intel). Regulations also might affect company in a negative manner. Concerns on demand for products, and how the company will continue to grow. 

It reported over a week ago and was hit hard. A quality company that enjoys demand for its chips. There will be more correction in semis. Careful to enter this.

Great opportunity to pick up 4 pillars. MU on the manufacturing, TSM for the foundry, LRCX or KLAC or ASML as the equipment suppliers, NVDA is a gift down here as a designer. And (he can't believe he's going to say this) even INTC; come 2025, it will be competitive with NVDA.

They report next week. They've sold out their EUV product. Their last quarter surprised him. It's a pretty good set up for them now, but it's not cheap. He's holding.

Continues to like and accumulate for clients. Their monopoly gives them pricing power. Rising 200-day MA, with the stock price above it. Technically, very strong. Forecasted 18-20% earnings growth.

Just announced that Taiwan Semi will spend $12 billion on their EUV machines. ASML has a huge wait list for its products, a 20-month wait.

His 12-month target is $1160, still decent runway, he hasn't trimmed yet. King of the highway in etching. The one running behind them is CAJ.

But if you're concerned about ASML, or your position's getting too big, take some profits and move some over to CAJPY.

Monopoly in high-end systems, immense pricing power. Last quarter's report had revenue growing 13% YOY, net profit up 9% YOY. Well positioned to participate in growth of semiconductor industry and the rise of AI.

In the semiconductor space, you could probably look a little further down the food chain, perhaps at some of the equipment suppliers like this one.

Very good company. He likes this space which is on a cyclical upswing. A concern is the US chips act against China. Likes ASML, but on a pullback.

There are probably 4 in this category of semiconductor equipment suppliers. LRCX does design, manufactures the equipment, refurbishes and services the equipment. 12-month price target of $1069, decent runway. Reports soon. Very conservative, so we won't get surprised. 

ASML using ultraviolet to etch chips has become the cat's meow, carving out a nice niche for EUVs. It's a bit cheaper. Reported last week, positive on top and bottom lines but lowered guidance. It sees demand coming back very strong in second half. Semis are a big thing with the AI revolution. Opportunity to buy a fantastic company at a cheaper price. 12-month price target of $1070.

For new money, put half in each.