Stockchase Opinions

Mario Mainelli, CFA Amazon.com, Inc. AMZN-Q BUY May 09, 2018

There are many strong catalysts going forward: their Cloud, Amazon Prime and, especially now, advertising segments. A solid stock.

$1608.000

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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BUY

He'd absolutely buy for a long-term hold. One of the 3 major players in cloud. E-commerce division is still a loss leader, but still such a draw and massive threat to rest of retail. Generating free cashflow, valuation has come down, lots of growth going forward. 

BUY

Great business. Has AWS, which is a huge piece of the business. Also direct-to-consumer, so that part continues to grow in this time of inflation. Valuation is not stretched, so he'd be looking at this one among the Mag 7.

TOP PICK
Down 8% today on AWS disappointment.

Yes, those earnings were disappointing. Still came ahead of what was expected, but not to the same tune as MSFT's or GOOG's. Just a matter of time before it ramps up again. Will continue spending on data centres, and this will pay off. 

Sees a parallel to Q2 earnings for MSFT last year. Azure disappointed, stock dropped ~10-15%. Since then, it's up ~25-30%. Same thing should happen to AMZN in about a year.

This is the one of the group that's going to do the best going forward. With an understanding of tariffs going forward, AMZN will price accordingly; so the e-commerce side of the business will be more refined and its outlook better. No dividend.

(Analysts’ price target is $258.94)
DON'T BUY

Its earnings disappointed. Their AWS was the only area that you didn't expect to underperform; guidance and margins disappointed.

TOP PICK

Likes the whole AI play, it'll change the world. Biggest player in outsource infrastructure for computers; for example, SLF uses AMZN for its back office. Cheaper than the rest of the Mag 7. Buying opportunity and will catch up. AWS and advertising have much higher margins than the retail segment and are growing at a faster rate. No dividend.

(Analysts’ price target is $261.93)
BUY ON WEAKNESS

He believes in it. Was surprised by the quarter, namely AWS, the cloud. Ultimately, he likes their business model a lot, a hybrid of the consumer business and AWS. Trades at 30x forward PE, which some say is expensive. It would be a lot lower if they stopped their capex spending (on AI). There's no catalyst in immediate sight. If shares fall further, he will add.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

It was coming into resistance and having a tough time leading to the report. Even if they had a great report, shares would have struggled around $206. MSFT had a monster report which raised the bar for cloud, so that's why Amazon is getting hit. He owns enough shares now, and won't add, but for someone entering, wait a few days for shares to settle.

BUY

She likes it and is adding to her position. It scores 9 out of 10 fundamentally and is re-writing the rules of AI in automation in the retail space. It is looking at optimization - robots can do 40% more in packaging. Amazon's general AI business is growing in the triple digits. Revenue is up 22%. She is watching the supply side which is little bit lagging. Same day delivery is expanding and it is doing well in cottage country.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 18/24, Up 22%)

Is the greatest retail business in the world. Also, AWS is strong. Is trading at a reasonable PE, unlike the past. The earnings have caught up. Will hit $300-400 within 18 months. 

TOP PICK

Global leadership in e-commerce. Cloud infrastructure AWS is #1 in the world. Margin expansion of ads helping earnings growth. Capex in AI will assist productivity, increase earnings, and reinforce cloud leadership. Recent earnings and revenue beat expectations. Retail margins are improving. 

Paying 33x forward PE for 17% growth. Premium valuation, but there's no other AMZN out there. On the verge of a technical breakout, which should lead to higher prices. No dividend.

(Analysts’ price target is $262.47)