Stockchase Opinions

James Thorne American Tower AMT-N BUY ON WEAKNESS May 04, 2017

He loves it, but it is too expensive for him. They took out the number 2 tower company in India. If we got a pullback it would be one of those companies at the top of his list to add to. When the street loves a stock you should sell it. Then we can get in.

$127.390

Stock price when the opinion was issued

Telecommunications
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It leases tower space to cell phone providers. It has had good results and is well positioned and cheap. It does have exposure to dish and the dish network has been in decline.

DON'T BUY

Has looked at the business in the past.
Maturing business - reason for stock price decline.
Diversification of towers has peaked in North America.
Growth rates slowing.
Would not invest at this time.

BUY ON WEAKNESS
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

AMT is a $77.5B REIT which pays a 3.8% yield. Forward sales and earnings estimates are decent, and its historical growth rates are strong. Its margins have been weakening over the past few years and its valuation has come down alongside the rapid rise in interest rates. It generates good free cash flows, which are partly used for distributions and partially for paying down debt. It has a good balance sheet, and it is fundamentally strong, but its valuations are somewhat high and declining based on competition from other high-yielding assets with much less risk such as GICs and high-interest savings accounts. We feel that a catalyst that could help its share price is interest rates stalling or even declining. The central banks indicating that they are done with hiking interest rates can act as a catalyst for AMT and other REITs.
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COMMENT

A juggernaut in cell towers. Has done very well over time. However, they carry a lot of debt, which is why shares have underperformed in recent years. If interest rates stay high, AMT will have to deal with that.

BUY

Is up 14% in May. REITs have fallen as interest rates rose. But cell phone towers are an international growth story, because there needs a lot of investment before rolling out 5G.

BUY

Likes it because each year they can raise their prices, which is built into their contracts. Also, earnings are accelerating and the dividend grows.

BUY

Is growing especially outside the US. Benefits as more carriers come onto the same tower, which gives them operating leverage.

TOP PICK

As a REIT, some benefit with respect to rate expectations. Just sold tower business in India, which was an overhang, using proceeds to reduce leverage. Capital allocation moving towards developed (away from developing) countries,  which adds certainty, higher inflation protection, and more data. Yield is 2.7%.

(Analysts’ price target is $237.64)
BUY

Utilities have been doing great, and people need more cell towers.

BUY

Cell phone tower owner/operator - leases out to providers. Very good business as towers don't need to be re-developed. Able to grow earnings at a consistent basis. A little bit more debt than is preferred, but with falling interest rates - will be good for business. Good time to invest in company, and has been buying shares.