Hap (Robert) Sneddon FCSI Affirm Holdings AFRM-Q BUY ON WEAKNESS Oct 09, 2024

If he owned it, he'd sell it. It's tripled since May. There's competition in the space, flooding in now. And investors have priced in a lot of growth. Sell a third. DO NOT buy it. If you're aggressive, then dump it.

This fintech stock surged from the mid-50s in July to $148 today, but last Wednesday was hammered by hot inflation numbers and a weak quarter by peer Upstart. Shares rebounded mostly the following day after reporting a generally strong quarter. At $24 below its high, this could be trading now at a discount.

It's been a rocket since it won the contract to be the sole operator of buy-now, pay-later for Amazon. The CEO believes the credit card companies will be roadkill. AFRM won't offer hidden charges and extort consumers with high interest rates who can't pay their bills in time, says the CEO. AFRM withstand the pandemic downturn last year. This company has a mission. It's winning big business.

The top 5 junior, next-generation growth/tech stocks: #5 Affirm: The young distrust credit cards, but embrace this fintech. The CEO vows no hidden features and total transparency.

Buy now, pay later stocks: Affirm, Upstart, Block and Paypal Upstart is down 92% from its high, Affirm 89%, Block 78% and PayPal 76%. Some of this is due to these stocks being massively massively overpriced to begin with. At peak, Affirm was trading at 30x sales (not earnings), and it won't be profitable before 2026. Block and PayPal are profitable, but were trading at sky-high multiples last year (170x PE and 65x respectively). The market hates the buy-now, pay-later stocks because they don't make money (though are well-run). He liked Upstart early on; it wasn't a buy-not,pay-later story, but helped facilitate loans using technology. But Upstart took on far more credit risk than assumed, which upset him. The business models of these stocks were far better when interest rates were low. Also, more competitors have rushed in now. The lesson: don't be caught up in euphoria. Earnings, valuations and interest rates matter.

When to buy puts?

It has a giant short position, and every time the stock goes down, the street pulls it up. The actual quarter in mid-February will probably be good. It's a sucker's game to short this.