Stock price when the opinion was issued
Yesterday, he took just a little bit of gold out; on a 14% weighting, he sold around 2%. Doesn't own this one right now. If you're a longer-term player, gold has lots of room to go.
Gold looks a bit extended (temporarily). You can see that on the AEM chart; the breakout was around $80, had a good move, and now it's arcing off of the trendline.
Good company, but hard to buy right now. The only gold producer she owns. Yield is less than 1%, which no longer gives you much of a buffer; you're really banking on the stock price maintaining these levels. Stock more than doubled last year, up 72% this year. 90% of assets in really good jurisdictions.
Needs to see some steam come off the valuation before putting new $$ in.
Gold can certainly correct but it is difficult to forecast and the reasons will vary. Gold has had five annual losses since 2005, including -51% in 2011 and -46% in 2013. The US dollar and interest rates are the biggest drivers (good and bad). Companies with good cost control such as AEM have very good leverage to price moves. At $5000 gold, we would be fairly sure AEM would trade above $300. It is 23x earnings today. We would be fine buying in the $235 range.
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A more conservative name among the precious metals. When a bull market starts, it can go on for a decade in multiple stages. With gold, we're probably in the first one. Mining is a really hard business, so you want to own the leader.
For years and years, management has done a great job doing what they say they're going to do. Multiple properties in geographically safe jurisdictions. Long-reserve-life assets.
Balance sheet in great shape. Expect share buybacks. Great cashflow, nice growing dividend. Yield is 0.87%.
Our PAST TOP PICK with AEM has achieved its target at $140. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering half the position at this time and trailing up the stop (from $92) to $112 at this time.