Barry Schwartz
Archer Daniels Midland Company
ADM-N
BUY
Dec 12, 2011
Very hard and complex company to understand. Involved in making additives for food as well as in the trading business. Does like that they are the biggest supplier of soybeans to China and over time, China is going to need more and more soybeans. Very cheap on a PE basis trading at a Price to Book Value of 1. Has raised its dividend 30+ years in a row.
The CFO has been suspended due to questions around accounting. Also there have been operational problems. He got stopped out and replaced it with Deere, a long term buy, since he wants something in the agriculture space.
Does not own shares. Agriculture business that is a giant within sector. Tough business with low margins and high capital requirements. Lots of capacity for grain and seed crushing. Food additive business also growing. Better options available for investors in market.
They sold it and take profits, because they had accounting issues and could not file. When the fraud investigation was announced, shares were in the $80s and he expected it to bounce back. Instead, shares have fallen to $61. Sees no upside.
It's now breaking a long downtrend since late 2022. Investors have been dumping defensive stocks the last two months, but he's been adding defensive because they're on sale--and because a correction is looming. Are paid a 4-5% dividend.
Turning up after a downward trend. Likes the setup. Lots of the value guys he knows really like this name. Technicals are highlighting important inflection point.
Combining fundamentals and technicals is really powerful in your investment decision-making process. Helps to avoid value traps.